In times of reshuffle, the executive launch trial balloons – Le Figaro

INTERVIEW – The Deputy Director General of Ifop, Frederic Dabi, decrypts the information that Martine Aubry would target the Foreign Ministry immediately denied by the applicant. He sees a maneuver and a “strategy wimpy”

LE FIGARO. – Le Parisien dedicated in its edition today one page to the alleged ambitions of Martine Aubry to the Quai d’Orsay. Immediately, the mayor of Lille issued a denial, saying it does “not wish” to join the government at the reshuffle imminent. How do you understand this information or misinformation?

The Deputy Director General of Ifop, Frederic Dabi. © AFP

Frédéric DHABI – Rumors approaching a governmental change are common. Except that 14 months of the presidential election, the effectiveness of a redesign for the five seems extremely limited. The redesign is a political weapon that wears very quickly, with very low levels of interest in French. Rustling on possible casting only of interest to stakeholders, the media, and pollsters.

LE FIGARO – Martine Aubry denounced a “billiard shot 12 tapes” and claims to know who is at the origin of this information. Do you also the possibility of remote controlled action?

This is obviously a hypothesis. In this pre-reorganization period, the executive’s interest to launch trial balloons, broadcast names. Martine Aubry is the one that is seen as the incarnation of the left, and at the same time the chief rebellious though, let us not forget, she signed the motion majority of the Socialist Party, that of Jean-Christophe Cambadélis. It is a way both to provoke his reaction, but also of public opinion about him. But you know Martine Aubry, she will not let it go by maneuvers

LE FIGARO. – Who these speculations can they ultimately benefit?

Hard to say who benefits from the crime! This is the game of ambitions, strategy damp squib. But the surprise for this redesign will be zero. A successful redesign must arouse surprise, be prepared in secret, which is not the case for this one, unlike the end of August 2014 where departures of Arnaud Montebourg, Aurélie Filippetti and Benoît Hamon had involved a clarification of the line and had the effect of a “blitz” reworking ( “lightning reshuffle”, ie)

LE FIGARO. – Can we see a potential political coup Martine Aubry?

Yes, why not. The figures in these testing times their integration in a particular department. Michel Sapin did for the Department of Justice, which has not worked, and now works for the Constitutional Council. On the opinion, however the effect is either zero or bad. In the past, we have seen that the endless episode of the government reshuffle of Francois Fillon in 2010 has cost Nicolas Sarkozy. Rumors began circulating in June, leading to an official announcement in November.