on the eve of the entry into force of theParis Agreement on the climate, on 3 November, the UN has warned all countries in the world, it should be ” urgently and radically ” reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, which are at the origin of global warming, to avoid ” a human tragedy “. Erik Solheim, the director of the united Nations Program for environment (UNEP), who is the author of this warning, said in its annual report on climate action global : “ If we do not begin to take additional measures now, when the Marrakesh conference (COP22), we will eventually cry in front of a human tragedy avoidable… We are moving in the right direction. But this is still not enough if we want to have a chance o f avoiding a climate change major “, stressing that, in the default ” the growing number of climate refugees hit by hunger, poverty, disease and conflict will remind us of how relentless our failure “. And to add : “science has shown that we must act much more quickly “.
The need to act
The scientists, who have been able to reconstruct the climate history of our planet, by analyzing air bubbles trapped in the Arctic at different times, and realized that since the beginning of the industrial era (around 1850) the climate warmed up inexorably, immediately understood the disastrous consequences that could have this phenomenon on the balance of the ecosystem of the earth.
This discovery has immediately been the subject of numerous scientific studies and on the initiative of the world meteorological Organization (WMO) and the united Nations Program for environment (UNEP) an organization has been created to make a global synthesis of knowledge in this area. Thus was born in 1988, the intergovernmental Group of experts on climate change (IPCC), which was first published in 1990 a report every five years. These reports evaluate from a scientific point of view, the influence of man on climate change, measure the risk and propose strategies for adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming.
The findings of the IPCC, which has become the organ of reference for the scientific secretariat of the Convention united Nations framework on climate change (UNFCCC), is alarming. The planet lives in a global warming unprecedented. From their first report in 1990, entitled ” First Assessment Report “, the scientists demonstrated that the climate warming is due to increased emissions into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (GHG) such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and that it is the result of human activity.
Each year, we are struggling to establish new records for heat. The year 2015, with a temperature a global average of 0.74°C above the average for 1961-1990, ranks among the warmest years since 1850. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the previous, and warmer than all previous decades. The IPCC, in its latest report of 2013 ” Assessment Report 5 “), specify that ” The heat waves will likely occur more frequently and last longer. With the warming of the Earth, we expect to see the areas currently humid and receive more rainfall and dry regions receiving less “.
We are already seeing many transformations, for example the rise of the oceans or the reduction of the ice caps (over the last 10 years, the ice cap in Greenland has decreased to 215 billion tonnes per year ; since 1979, the surface of the arctic ice pack decreases by 3.5 to 4.1% per decade), and the situation continues to deteriorate. The world meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that the average worldwide concentration in the atmosphere the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, has reached for the first time in 2015, the symbolic threshold of 400 particles per million-and broke new records in 2016.
in the Face of this fact science, the united Nations will bring together the international community at the Earth Summit of 1992 to find answers and this will be the creation of the united Nations framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) that will bring together virtually all the countries of the world (197 States or parties to the Convention).
But the Convention merely sets the general framework, it is a commitment to fight global warming, but there is still the modus operandi. Because the problem is global and the control strategy must be as well. And the UNFCCC will have to find a plan of action and effective international that works for everyone and that takes into account the wishes and specificities of each State. Some are big GHG emitters such as the United States or China, compared to other which are low emitters of GHGS, but which, however, are particularly exposed to the consequences of climate change such as small island States that may disappear with the rising of the oceans.
Ever the un were faced with a problem of such complexity, because the response of the States, already difficult to coordinate, implies fundamental changes for all, in all areas and with quick deadlines, because during this time the climate continues to warm.
The Paris agreement
Since 1992, there have been multiple attempts to find a satisfactory method for all, there have been treaties like the Kyoto protocol, moments of failures and hopes as Copenhagen or Doha , but it will have to wait until 2016 before arriving for the first time to a commitment of the entire world with goals and deadlines, and will be the Paris Agreement. An agreement between symbolically in force less than a year after its adoption by the COP21 in Paris, ratified by over 55 countries and covering a volume of emissions sufficient to be applied.
The main objective of the Paris Agreement is to keep the rise in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius this century and lead the efforts to further limit the increase of the temperature, 1.5 degree Celsius above preindustrial levels in order to avoid a climate change that is dangerous and irreversible.
at the COP21, at the proposal of the Paris agreement, the governments have submitted each of the national plans on which they are ready to engage while promising to raise the bar of their ambitions. To do so, deadlines have been established : the Paris Agreement will enter into service in 2020 and the objectives will be refined every 5 years to arrive at – 2° at the end of the siècle.De more and more governments are also committed to provide adapted technologies and the necessary financial support to developing countries.
by 2018 At the latest, the governments and the parties (countries) have finalized the last details and the rules that will measure and evaluate the action of the global climate, while ensuring the necessary transparency for all to ensure each other’s efforts.
The conference of the COP22 Marrakech is the starting point for the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The yard is huge and the work will begin in Morocco will need to prepare for this fight against global warming, which will be entering its active phase by 2020. In Marrakesh, it will be necessary to emerge a clear roadmap to be ready. It will also be necessary to organize the mobilization of $ 100 billion would be needed annually to support developing countries by the developed countries.
For the negotiator French Laurence Toubiana, who has been one of the great actresses of the Paris Agreement ” the most important issue in Marrakech, it is to agree on a deadline to decide on the rules of application of the agreement, including the rules of transparency “. The rules of transparency, it is all the information that countries will need to provide on their efforts to limit their emissions, as well as the progress of public financial assistance. A key question for the world to act in concert.
Marrakesh has a good battle plan, but major efforts will have to be made by all to achieve the goal of – 2°, because at a time when opens the COP22, the sum of the current commitments put the planet on a trajectory of + 3°C or even 3°4 according to the UN, which is concerned with the continued increases in global emissions.