FIGAROVOX / ANALYSIS – The speech of Nicolas Sarkozy on the occasion of the first congress of the Republicans received a standing ovation. Jérôme Sainte-Marie analyzes the strategy adopted by the party president to regain the right.
A graduate of Sciences Po Paris and a degree in history, Jerome Sainte-Marie worked at the Government Information Service and the Louis Harris Institute. He then headed then BVA Opinion from 1998 to 2008 and CSA Opinion from 2010 to 2013. He founded the ISAMA parallel institute in 2008.
He currently leads Pollingvox, a research company and consultancy specializing in the issues of opinion, founded in 2013. He is also the author of several books including methodological innovations and a chair for 10 to Archipelago editions.
For forty-five minutes, before the Republicans, Nicolas Sarkozy has rarely deployed as at this level his oratory and political intelligence. The structure like the rhythm of the text, with the scansion of the word Republic and its infinite variations, gave an offensive tone for what could have been a formal and boring exercise. Especially, even when the return of the former president in the political life last September was laborious, it appears that the strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy has now settled. On the right, the games are not made, but the positioning of the players is now clearly established.
Even as the return of former President in the political life September was laborious, it appears that the strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy has now settled.
Where we talking Nicolas Sarkozy? In a strong institutional position, direction of the main opposition party, and a low position in the opinion. Alain Juppe also openly said that his situation was exactly symmetrical. Nicolas Sarkozy can say that if the moods are volatile, the conquered places are durable, and the benefits they also give, and it is also he who, at the launch of the Republicans, had, in the strict sense the last word.
However, it must reckon with a tarnished image. Thus, a recent BVA poll showed that only 18% of French people wanted him to represent the UMP in the next presidential election, against 41% who cited Alain Juppe, the other five individuals tested garnering 31% of all citations. Its score was 33% among supporters of right, and 51% among those the only UMP. This study, conducted in mid-May, already showed a rise of Nicolas Sarkozy compared to the previous measurement in February, stating that he was beginning to reap the fruits of the conquest of the party. She stresses however that the situation is ambivalent in public opinion, including the right, which are primary coming real competition, not a ratification vote.
Faced with this contradiction, Nicolas Sarkozy has made a clear choice: not to attempt a seduction process of all French, but wake the pride of the right. This is more than an attempt to certify a well hypothetical personal change, but to consolidate within his camp using the most effective stimuli to the militants. The first of them is of course the hatred from the left, and Nicolas Sarkozy knows that this feeling is his best ally to stifle criticism of his own record as head of state. François Hollande, the antagonist and thus forms a complementary pair, while having both a personal interest in fanning opposition to clear the competition in their respective political families.
With Hollande It therefore forms an antagonistic and complementary pair, having any interest in fanning two personal opposition to clear the competition in their respective political families.
The Republicans launch speech was however much more beyond this role play, and indicated that a policy line was chosen for the coming months. Behind the diversity of topics, from school to the territorial reform, three main themes emerged: family, identity, authority. Far from communication devices, and cry from the triangulation practiced during the victorious campaign of 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy undertook to revisit the world of deep right.
The family is in crisis a safe structure acclaimed by the public, it is also the place for the transmission of heritage, and this notion was discussed at length by the President of the Republicans, who knows his partisan sociology. Note that if the setting, the pharmacist and entrepreneur has been recovered, the worker was mainly raised for the trust he must have in his boss. The family has the means to attack frontally the government, and to send a message to the supporters of the Manif for All. The family is finally a way to remember that the National Front, conspicuously absent from his speech barely mentioned through the “family drama” that he would know or refusal professed “extreme”, lacked clarity during the crisis of spring 2013. Without doubt, it is a theme that will be found, especially since it has the inestimable advantage of producing maximum political effect without much to be significant in budgetary terms .
Nicolas Sarkozy does not practice race in the center, it takes into account the constitution of what Gaël Brustier called a “right oligopoly”.
The identity went through all the prose of Nicolas Sarkozy. It was she in denouncing communalism, in the exaltation of Catholicism, through the figure of John Paul II, and in the call for confidence that the nation must have in itself. So barely subliminal, the slogan “we’re home” chanted at rallies Frontists was heard in the words of former President of the Republic. This corresponds to a profound movement of opinion, that the term covered with a little wave of cultural insecurity. Nicolas Sarkozy does not practice race in the center, it takes into account the constitution of what Gaël Brustier called a “right oligopoly” which won in the last polls close on two thirds of the votes. He knows the porosity between right National Front votes and votes, and he knows that among the Republicans, if one refutes the economic line advocated by Le Pen, it is more sensitive than ever to his words on national identity, and therefore on immigration.
Finally, authority, eternal theme for those who are experiencing exercise, Legitimist theme par excellence, dear leaders theme. For example the party leaders.
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