Because station to the bubble effect
Those who want to see a new Alain Juppe, Edouard Balladur argue that the popularity of two former prime ministers would be based on the same fiction erasure cleavages and a surmobilisation of “France is going well.” A mirage that is sure to dissipate in 2016 as in 1995, when candidates enter the hard electoral combat. At the time, the Balladur rating had peaked at the beginning of the year after cessation of Jacques Delors. Before screeching halt when Lionel Jospin was officially designated. Similarly, Juppe would benefit from the extraordinary unpopularity of François Hollande in the heart of a left in ruins, but an early reconstruction can not be excluded in favor of the primary early next year. Political analyst Jerome Sainte-Marie (PollingVox) emphasizes that appears Juppe “a lesser evil” for “left demoralized” , which earned him an approval rating of rates abnormally high (nearly 70%) among the PS supporters, but judge that in fine, each find his camp: we tend to “exaggerate the weight of left voters” in the future of the primary right, nothing indicating that they will outnumber those of the FN (12-15%).
read also Juppe, a New Balladur? Why does not fit
Subway. As Balladur formerly Juppe enjoys the overwhelming support of nearly 75% of centrist voters. And like him, it is particularly popular among older and more affluent. By leveraging its dynamism and its ability to dream, Sarkozy hopes to attract in the primary classes and young people, two categories that had allowed Chirac to turn the situation in 1995. According to Brice Dyer (Ipsos), 70% of people decided to vote in the primary are over 50 years old and 40% earn more than 3000 euros per month. By mobilizing against “the candidate of the system,” the former head of state bet it will change the electoral sociology, as Chirac. In 1995, Balladur had belatedly tried to retaliate by trying to make the people, he was seen climbing on a table and even take the subway. These put in ridiculous scene had had a disastrous effect, said François Miquet-Marty (ViaVoice): “People had questions. Why is this? Did he so afraid of losing? “ The sarkozystes hope that the images of plaid shirt Juppe discovering the” beer pong “produce the same effects.
In his business, Sarkozy is convinced that the party control remains a key asset. He behind his “Republicans” as Chirac had the RPR and the majority of its militants. Even at the lowest in the polls, the two party leaders could count on a solid electoral base that would allow the appropriate time to rebound. Chirac wrote to his supporters a program book, France for all when it was much talk of the “people” of dismay and anger: “Too many French feel misunderstood and despised, [...] the fate of the most modest French [called] a profound change. “
Watch. Twenty years later, Sarkozy, who could publish a new book in September, will also he swears by the people, the summoning fifty times in his speech in June in Saint-André-lez-Lille (Nord ). “The French loved Simone Veil, Jacques Delors, Edouard Balladur and Bernard Kouchner. But they voted for Mitterrand, Chirac and me! “ he told his relatives. Sure of his case, the candidate is hard to beat Juppe. Which as Balladur, has given the impression in the spring to play the watch to avoid damaging its dominant position. It was then, in fact, the polls began to be worse.
Because polls are increasingly tight
Since June, all polls show a very significant reduction in advance Juppe on Sarkozy. Although it is not as strong nor as brutal as that which resulted in early March 1995 on the crossing of the curves of Chirac and Balladur, the two movements are definitely comparable. At twelve months of the first round, Balladur was credited, according to TNS Sofres, 33% of voting intentions, against 14% for his rival. In February 1995, it had only 4.5 points ahead of 23.5% against 19% for Chirac. Similarly, the gap-Juppe Sarkozy dropped significantly last month. For the first time in nearly two years, the survey for BFM TV Odoxa June 26 recorded a significant drop of the mayor of Bordeaux (-5 points) and an equivalent rise of Nicolas Sarkozy (+4 points). The gap between the two men is reduced accordingly. With 38%, the mayor of Bordeaux has only 12 points ahead of former head of state. With the only supporters of the right and center, the reversal is even clearer. While he was distanced by 10 points in May, Sarkozy Juppe passes with 34% against 32%.
Compaction. Confirmed by several surveys in July, this trend, which is not a reversal of the balance of power, owes a lot to terrorist events, but also to the law work and Brexit, that allowed Sarkozy to surf his favorite subjects: authority border and identity. With less unpopular Sarkozy, Juppé ceases to be the one to ensure the victory of the right in 2017.
Without mentioning a direct causal link, Bernard Sananès (Elabe) recently pointed out in Les Echos “sondagier the settlement of Alain Juppé and the flashback relative of the former president is due to the same factors [...] right, it ‘ is his discretion after the attack on Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, which penalized [Juppe] “. The former Prime Minister was in Polynesia at the material time and was heard in the media that on July 29, three days after the tragedy, to provide “six levers against terrorism.” When, at the same time, Sarkozy showed himself first in line.
In July, according to the barometer Sunday newspaper measuring media exposure of candidates primary, the relationship between Sarkozy and Juppé was one to two in favor of the former head of State who is working his image multiplied in recent days confidences-interviews on RTL as in Point . In terms of public opinion, if the star pales Juppé (some), Bernard Sananès stresses that it is also because the elected Bordeaux “lost left for his statements following the attack Nice. “ the day after the killing, Juppé This ensures that ” all means [had] not been made “ the fight against terrorism. Remarks surprising home, usually measured immediately tackles the Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, but also by Nicolas Sarkozy, who judged them “unreasonable [s]” … while qualifying our Constitution “legal arguments” to hamper the security of the French.
Provocation. ViaVoice Institute President Francois Miquet-Marty, tip him as the favorite status can mobilize the opponent. For Juppe today like yesterday Balladur, “the rumor of a victory gained” would be fraught with danger. Somehow, the constant highlighting of a favorite is a provocation to voters, who can live the “as a democratic capture ‘. A source close to Sarkozy insists: “A campaign is precisely made to move the lines. Favorites, it annoys the French. And also the media: after raising Juppé to the summits, they will cut off his head “ As previously Chirac, Sarkozy did not deprive call to revolt against a winner already designated by “. the system “. Incidentally, it does not tire to paraphrase the ironic rant of Philippe Séguin in January 1995: “Stop believing that there will be a presidential election. The winner has already been appointed. Proclaimed. Praised. Move along, there’s nothing to see “
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