The race started. Less than a week after the announcement of François Hollande to renounce to run for a second term in office, Manuel Valls, Prime minister, had launched the offensive and is the declared candidate, before leaving on Tuesday, his post of the prime minister, be replaced by Bernard Cazeneuve. In recent weeks, the Prime minister no longer concealed its desire to submit. He had strongly made it clear to Francois Hollande, left to carry on the head of State a real pressure. Now, the way is clear. But this does not mean that the course will be quiet for Manuel Valls.
the head of The government enjoys a popularity greater than that of François Hollande: 26% of French people say they trust him, compared to only 13% for François Hollande, according to the barometer, a monthly TNS-Sofres. On 2 December, the Prime minister also pointed to 30% of favourable opinions in a BVA survey, representing a steady increase since July.
A good sign for Manuel Valls. If the polls also show a progression on the voting intentions for the presidential election, the First minister share away: poll, dated the 29th of November, the credits of 9.5% to 11% of voting intentions in the first round, behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
> the defence of The balance sheet
The fact of submitting his resignation, and so to get away from François Hollande will help? The opinion studies seem to show it. But Manuel Valls, who must wear, during the six-month campaign to come, a balance sheet of the quinquennium very much maligned, especially by his future opponents in the primary.
“Manuel Valls is the successor of François Holland in the primary. It is still its Prime minister, it is carrying in its balance sheet,” said and François Kalfon, director of campaign Arnaud Montebourg, Friday, December 2, on BFMTV.
Assume the balance sheet, while posing in présidentiable, it is all the difficulty to come to the Prime minister. In recent weeks, it has worked to create an image more consensual. In front of activists at PS Towers, at the end of October, he called for the “gathering” – he who has theorized the “left irreconcilable” – and chooses already to assume the balance of the current quinquennium. “We are proud to have restored the authority of the State, proud to have straightened out our economy,” says he, while defending public services, “which is the backbone of our French model”, and the law Work that “enhances the role of trade unions”. Manuel Valls appears in gatherer to the left and avoids sensitive issues such as laicism.
> Seduce PS
to Him, which has triggered a sometimes intense debate within his government, must yet do more to detach from this image. Because even within the PS and the government, these pronouncements – on the burkini, for example – have been able to draw some against him. “It is the subject of a release visceral on the part of a party of the left of the PS – Anne Hidalgo, Christiane Taubira, Martine Aubry, etc,” recalls Thierry Arnaud, political editor of BFMTV. “There’s a scenario feared by some socialists: an application in the primary cristalliserait this rejection.”
If you do not yet know the name of the possible candidate, the atmosphere tends already: Martine Aubry has served on Monday that its support to Manuel Valls in the primary had “nothing to clear”. Supports, Manuel Valls will still need to carry out its race to the presidential election. At the moment it is one of its major weak points: the former Prime minister has little relay. “It has no basis within the PS, and does not control the apparatus of the party,” says Thierry Arnaud.
however, It should gather support among the members of the government and of the majority, following his declaration of candidacy. Michel Sapin, Juliette Méadel, Didier Guillaume and Bruno Le Roux have already expressed. But again, this is suspicious: on the side of supporters the historic François Hollande, we would like to let us know that they were fifteen to meet on Monday noon, without Manuel Valls, to show their determination to “stay united”. A way to show that they will not be so easily rallied to the cause of a future candidate… Whatever it is.