Monday, October 3, 2016

Primary to the left : the last card of François Hollande – The Point

The PS has laid down the rules of its primary. First result, Arnaud Montebourg, has agreed to participate. While all the polls show that the left would be absent from the second round of the presidential election, this election may he re-engaged the “people of the left” ? Or is it just a maneuver to save the soldier Holland ? The editorials of the daily press national and regional question.

In the Voice of The North, Matthew Glass is reminiscent of the mode of employment of this election. “[...] The party offers more than 8 000 polling stations to mobilise the electorate to the left, 22 and 29 January. It gives € 50,000 to candidates to help them campaign. It enacts, especially the rules of a game in which any refusal to participate would make a family member a bad player. The debate between the two left socialists will be decided by the voters at the primary, expected to number two million, or 4% of the people registered on the electoral lists. The socialists have returned to their usual field of confrontation. Elephants have mastered the codes and know the limits. But two challenges still remain for this party washed away by the five-year programme : to mobilize the French and succeed in the rally on the evening of 29 January. “

According to Bernard Stéphan, in The Mountain, the organization that primary on the left has consequences on the primary… to the right. “[...] There is, therefore, in theory, the more the left go to vote Juppé in a primary from the right, and this for at least three reasons. First, the primary is formalized, it will be organized. Secondly, the left government will have the choice, it was against the outgoing president. Third, the left-wing activists know that the only space possible for a victory is to be confronted with Sarkozy or Marine Le Pen, and therefore that the ex-president, wins the primary to the right. “

” A door very close “

with This in mind, the editorialist place, the most likely scenario : “Now, one question remains, and not the least : François Hollande will he be a candidate ? It should not be as big a leap of faith to say yes. The left is going to let flow the stream of media from the primary to the right. The calendar will then be favourable from early December to late January. She will place the cursor in the debate on the social and economic policies, by comparing its balance sheet to the programs of unravelling promised by the right. François Hollande wants to be the reformer, which preserves the essential of the social model. It is the door very close by that he wants to spend. “

the Same analysis of Patrice Chabanet for The Journal of the Haute-Marne, for that decidedly, the politicians have hope pegged to the body : “[...] a certain way, the establishment of a primary confirms the weakness of the incumbent president. François Fillon had asked the question : imagine-t-on general de Gaulle put in consideration ? PS, some must be asking today is : imagine-t-on François Mitterrand submit to the test of a primary ? In spite of everything, François Hollande wants to believe it still. It multiplies movement and speech, failing to see the unemployment curve will invert. It has the head already in the presidential election. He already sees in a face-to-face with his best enemy, Nicolas Sarkozy. A dream that they have in common. Forgetting the bad surveys that overwhelm them. “

Jean-François Laville compute also the chances of the incumbent president in The Is Flash : ” [...] It stands for the time in its decision not to announce his decision before the month of December. What can happen by then to change possibly mind ? The pressures of his political friends ? The number of nominations competing ? Or a fantasy of this damn curve of unemployment which still does not reverse ? Everyone predicted a rout. Holland are not believed, or pretended not to believe it. It speaks of a hope, a promise. You can bet that he is already ready to embody both, and that its teams elysian are already working hard to prepare for his announcement of candidacy. For a new union with the French… “

Give it time

In The New Republic of the Center, Denis Daumin remember that game in this primary, for the moment, it is Montebourg which is given to winner : “[...] And then there was this survey published today drawing a roman triumph. Holland, 48 % of the vote in the second round, Montebourg, 52 %. Calm is not only décapsulé, it is siphoned off. It would be well advised to report, also, but he keeps it well. President not yet a candidate weighs, weighs and evaluates all the assumptions, leaving missed work days and the gilded clocks of the Elysium. In December maybe. It is necessary to give time to the time recommended by one of his predecessors, expert degree hourglasses. His name ? François Mitterrand. “

In The Republic of the Pyrenees, Jean-Michel Helvig judge that the games are far from facts : “the Primary or not for an outgoing president ? The debate is outdated since that François Hollande has expressed its willingness to participate in such a procedure, based for the minor inconvenience of being faced with challengers side that does the spare not so that he will have to assume the continuity of his duties as head of State. It is known skilled in the controversy, and he passes for a favorite in this primary [...]. The advantage that it think remove is to channel a large part of its electorate, before facing the opponent as the right would have the opposite at the end of his own primary. The announcement of the participation of Arnaud Montebourg at the warm-up lap for the socialist nomination gives, in advance, a certain credit to the competition that would have otherwise turned in a poor fight. [...]“

In The Midi Libre, Jean-Michel Serving is less optimistic for the title facing a serious challenger : “[...] Side socialist, the participation of Montebourg avoids the fragmentation of the party. It shows the willingness of Solferino to pass the sponge. To gather the lost sheep into holding fair elections. The reverse of the primary right, tailor-made for Nicolas Sarkozy. A way as to put the candidate Holland at the foot of the wall. Show him or her the difficulties – and risks – to come. To encourage them, perhaps, to throw the weapons to not receive [as shown in the BVA survey for Noon, Free] a slap in the face of Arnaud the Sling. “


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