Vote of confidence. “The challenge was not subdued” – Ouest-France

Vote of confidence. "The challenge was not subdued" – Ouest-France

Manuel Valls was given the confidence of Parliament, on Tuesday in the National Assembly. What lessons can be learned from the policy speech of the Prime Minister? What conclusions do vote? Analysis of Jérôme Fourquet, director of the Department of Business and Opinion Strategies pollster Ifop.

What lessons can be learned from the policy speech by Prime Minister Manuel Valls ? to the National Assembly

On the general and about the ads, we are in something relatively classic and expected, which is in following the reshuffle: we do no inflection on government policy online. This was reiterated and stressed. As in the reshuffle, it was more to test the loyalty and support, at the time of ministers and parliamentarians today, has this policy line, saying that there would be no inflection no left turn, we would not return to the directions taken.

The number of reports is relatively low. That the elections may be important but it is not a decisive choice that will change the political balance and the daily lives of French. There is little on ads provided. The key was “retemper” this support to start a new sequence that will be tough enough as it is in a very deteriorated economic environment, amplify the movement and reform.

What conclusions can we do after the vote

The number of abstentions was multiplied by two, which is significant. Comparing to vote on amending budget of Social Security, we had a relatively equal balance of power (272 for, 234 against, 54 abstentions). At the time 33 Socialist deputies abstained. Today we are on that level. This is however almost three times more than last April on the first vote of confidence. But it is less at the time of saving plan (41 socialist abstentions). Some had forecast 20-30 abstentions. It is in the upper range.

Is there disallowance for prime minister?

The record is mixed. It is a majority that is emerging. Not an absolute majority, if we calculate on all members but we do have a majority. The disaster scenario does not happen. However, we still thirty Socialist deputies who abstained.

This test that the government has inflicted was intended to consolidate, or recreate legitimacy, in full awareness that the coming period before it will be economically and politically, extremely complicated. We’ll have to fight for each text. If the Governement has reforged its legitimacy in the Assembly, we find that the movement of anger and protest is far from over in the socialist ranks.

it may herald a headache for Manuel Valls and his minister in charge of relations with parliament in the coming months. He can continue, he has a majority to do so. The goal was that one so the goal is successful. Meanwhile, the dispute has not been quelled in the bud. It still exists and could resurface and manifest itself in less symbolic votes. Parliamentary guerrilla has a bright future ahead of her.