French want of renewal for 2017. And especially not the 2012 rematch, François Hollande against Nicolas Sarkozy. This is the major lesson to our exclusive survey for newspaper and BFM TV.
As a result, one year of the first round of presidential elections, the game seems extremely open.
Imperial Juppe
of course, in 70 years, the man is not new, but comeback. It dominates more than ever right rivals in the polls for the primary in November. Archifavori and appears in our survey: only candidate ahead Marine Le Pen in the first round if the election were held next Sunday, he would prevail in all cases the second, facing the FN as to the left. But polls are not worth prediction, the election is still far away. “To head the race can also be a handicap because it makes you a prime target,” worries a relative of the mayor of Bordeaux. Some in the Sarkozy camp, doubt that it fits through the shock of an internal campaign that looks bloody and really start after the summer. The famous “effect Balladur.”
Marine Le Pen must
Fifteen years after the 2002 crash of thunder, 2017 may well experience a new April 21. In our survey, regardless of the configuration of the first round, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen would qualify for the final. Passing each time the threshold of 30% in the first round, it would be deprived from pole position in case the champion of the right would Juppe. But for now, the far-right candidate still faces in the second round, the 50% of the glass ceiling and is beaten by Juppé but by Sarkozy … or even by Emmanuel Macron if it represented left. But what is revealed for the first time our survey is that it could win in duel with Holland. “The problem for her is that today this scenario is fiction-politics, incumbent President being eliminated in the first round in all cases, analysis Gaël Sliman, director of Odoxa. But everything can change by April 2017. “
The phenomenon Macron
And if it was him? Great beneficiary of this desire for change, the fiery Economy Minister who has just launched his own accord, Power Up! If we wanted to test the assumptions in the left candidate, it is because a majority of French (52%) feels it would do “a good president.” Which ranks behind Alain Juppé (58%), but far ahead of Bayrou (35%) and especially Valls (33%), Sarkozy (29%) and Holland … (18%). For the current president and his predecessor, the slogan “get out the incumbent” plays in full. Moreover, in the first round, Sarkozy would beat Macron (albeit with a narrow lead of 2 points, so the margin of error in the polls). But it would be removed by Juppe.
Sarkozy to sentence
Private second round in our survey by Macron – a first! – The boss of Republicans still well and truly behind. Leaded particular by application of François Bayrou, the centrist who always said he would run if Sarkozy, not Juppe, won the primary right. His best chance would be the candidacy of his heartthrob 2012. Face Holland, he would pass the first round and beat Marine Le Pen in the final
Holland offside
the head of state is the loser in our investigation. However, ordinarily, the “presidential suit” gives a bonus to the outgoing. Not so with Holland, who, having received credit renewed after the attacks, plunges. “It is even now within reach of Mélenchon and Bayrou” notes Sliman. And it is not now able to reach the second round. Although he showed Thursday on France 2 his desire not to give up, the possibility of a handover to a less unpopular leftist candidate has nothing absurd.
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