POLICY – It’s flat for Emmanuel Macron, while for François Fillon, the effect is devastating and immediate. A week after the Penelope Gate broke out in Le Canard Enchaîné, the former prime minister to fall heavily in a poll for the presidential election. But more than the loss of five or six points depending on the situation, it is the main teaching of the survey Elabe for Les Echos, and a Radio Classic that has anything to destabilize the candidate of the right.
For the first time, he finds himself excluded from the second round, which will inevitably fuel debate around its continued presence in the race. With only 19% or 20% of voting intentions (depending on whether François Bayrou is the candidate or not), François Fillon comes in third behind Marine Le Pen (26 or 27%) and thus Emmanuel Macron (22 or 23%), who will be the guest of 20h TF1 this same day, Wednesday the 1st of February.
This survey conducted in the aftermath of the victory of Benoît Hamon to the primary of the left is also a very good news for the candidate of the PS. Since the last survey conducted at the beginning of January, he earns ten points and now lies in fourth position. He is credited with 16 or 17% of voting intentions, just a few hundred yards of François Fillon.
The socialist deputy dig as much with Jean-Luc Mélenchon which limits itself to 10%.
In the event of a second round, Emmanuel Macron would beat Marine Le Pen even more widely as François Fillon. The former minister of Economy would prevail with 65% of the vote while former elected official of the Sarthe does not prevail that 59% of the vote.
Fillon, Macron and Hamon in a tissue according to a second survey
A second survey published this Wednesday in the evening is a little less dramatic for François Fillon but confirms the favourable winds which push the candidate to Walk. An Ifop survey for Paris Match Sud Radio and iTélé continues to place the candidate of the right, in the second position (behind Marine Le Pen with 24%) but a further loss of two points to the lowest since his victory in the primary. With only 21% of the votes, he is followed closely by Emmanuel Macron.
Benoît Hamon pulls the chestnuts out of the fire. By tripling their score compared to the previous similar study, it is now at 18% of voting intentions. Although the Fifg states: “taking account of margins of error, there is an uncertainty on the order of arrival of Benoît Hamon, Emmanuel Macron and French prime minister François Fillon”.
on the strength of these positive signals, Emmanuel Macron, will sign on Saturday in Lyon, his true entry in the field, in front of some 8000 people. But it would then be necessary to keep this dynamic so that the campaign will harden. “For the moment, it is not entered into the atmosphere, it revolves”, métaphorise a mp PS reformer. “He incorporates conflicting interests. The real problem will be when he will put on the table all their ideas,” he predicts.
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