It’s been two years since Manuel Valls came to the Hotel Matignon. He knew the places to have once been attached parliamentarian Michel Rocard, then once the Adviser for Communication and Press Lionel Jospin. Since March 31, 2014, is as Prime Minister he returned rue de Varenne. On arriving, he had the original and carefully developed a Catalan clemenciste, that is to say, the champion of a moderate left ideologically, politically very firm, with values of authority, secularism, patriotism (in the tradition of Clemenceau), but also of modernity, openness, reformism (Catalan key).
Still forties at the time, he intended to embody the renewal of the left, his conversion an innovative reformism, unashamedly and without taboo. He wanted to be left of the XXI th century. Jean-Luc Mélenchon straight out of utopian socialism of the nineteenth th century, magnificent orator, chimerical ideologist, strategist vindictive; François Hollande personifies the social democracy of the XX th century, lyrical verb, pragmatic practice, labyrinthine skill; Manuel Valls already entered the post-socialist sentiments left, centrist reason, experimental expectations.
Two years later, the picture is very mixed. The circumstances were ferocious. dramatic attacks between January and November on national soil; curve stubbornly refusing unemployment reversed; chess increasingly cruel to interim elections to bring the PS during the recent by-elections at its lowest in 1962, when the SFIO of Guy Mollet seemed about to agonize; internal fractures of the left, break with the Left Front, continuing guerrilla slingers; general anxiety, especially in the lower classes, to unemployment, precarious and spectacular migration from the Middle East; war and conflict environment. a general climate similar to that of the 30
In response, Manuel Valls demonstrated Spartan firmness, a consular authoritarianism. In tandem he formed with François Hollande, constantly we feel that the head of state has a way of Orleanist government and the prime minister, a Bonapartist power technology. Manuel Valls delivered in January 2015, before a National Assembly conquered the finest speech of five years. Everything was there: courage, patriotism, eloquence, the call for unity. We dreamed. Fifteen months later we face.
François Hollande was forced to withdraw his proposed constitutional amendment. the more difficult it is known that retirement is military tactics to succeed. It was a failure which also weakens the Prime Minister: it no longer at the Palais Bourbon as a residual majority random. Worse: El Khomri law, to be the ultimate symbol of Dutch-vallsien reformism is stripped every day an additional provision to look like a plucked peacock
Manuel Valls can run well. one studio to another to defend his action. It can stand on Islamism, on Salafism, a vigorous speech and without illusion. We can not, in good faith, denied the prime minister’s authority but we can judge its balance sheet frustrating. Only sustainable thinning on the employment front could revalue.
Meanwhile, his popularity, initial enviable heritage, continues to decrease and become commonplace, while Bernard Cazeneuve is needed and that Emmanuel Macron proposes. Valls line remains legible and coherent. He intends to remain to the end alongside François Hollande, even if their relations are strained. It will thus have accomplished the ritual three years permanently install a prime minister in the landscape. He will campaign alongside the Head of State, an exercise he likes and where he can say without risk since it will not be the candidate. If however François Hollande ultimately decided not to run, while Manuel Valls course would dispute the primary and even if the left wing of the PS was trying to make her dam (but messy, scattered among several candidates), it would be the best placed to represent the outgoing majority. As it looks like a trickle, it is rather for Manuel Valls the opportunity to date and to preempt later.
left after 2017 will indeed rebuild and even reinvent. Manuel Valls has long prepared for it. There will be no monopoly Emmanuel Macron, for example, will hear his personal music and slingers install cacophony. Still, if Manuel Valls will not be a happy prime minister, it will appear in a year as a future man.