Wednesday, June 22, 2016

“Brexit Brexit or Not”? The British referendum in 10 questions –

46.5 million British voters should take a historic decision on Thursday. Should the United Kingdom or not remain in the European Union? 10 point, here is the flow and the main issues of this crucial poll

( – This Thursday, June 23, Britons go to the polls to vote in a referendum on whether to maintain the United Kingdom in the European Union. Under pressure from a section of his party and the rise of Ukip eurosceptic party, Prime Minister David Cameron promised in 2013 to hold a referendum if re-elected in 2015. In 10 questions, we turn to .? ‘horizon of this election and its issues

1) what question will be put to the British

the text on which the British will have to decide is:

“the UK should he remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” ( “Should the United Kingdom REMAIN a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”)

The voters have a choice of two answers: “Staying member of the European Union” ( “Remain a member of the European Union “) or” Exit the European Union “(” Leave the European Union “).

2) What timetable for polls? When will the results?

The polls will be open from 7 am to 22 pm local time, or 8h to 23h French time. The results are expected Friday morning. According to the British press, the publication of the first reliable results could be around 3:30 to 4:00 am in the UK (4:30 am to 5 am in France). Final results should be announced to local 7am (8am to Paris).

3) Who can vote this Thursday?

The referendum has motivated the British voters, who are about 46, 5 million registered, according to the British electoral commission, or 150,000 more than in the general elections of May 2015 may vote, all Britons living in the UK, as well as those living abroad but who have left their country since less than fifteen years. The Irish and the citizens of Commonwealth countries resident in the UK or Gibraltar and the Irish born in Northern Ireland and who left the country for less than five years may also vote.

4 ) What are the main campaign issues?

the campaign was acrimonious, but took a turn more restrained after the assassination on June 16, the Labour MP Jo Cox, in favor of maintaining EU, by a man close to the extreme right. The Brexit of supporters and those of a holding within the EU basically compete on three themes: immigration, economy and sovereignty of their country. On migrant crisis fund, which divides Europe from summer 2015, supporters of Brexit want London include the ability to control its borders. Supporters of “Bremain” ( “in Britain and” Remain “: staying) claim to support studies that immigrants contribute more in taxes than they cost the state coffers, especially because it is a young population.

on the economic front, the “pro-Brexit” argue that London would not have to pay a contribution to the EU budget, or nearly 8, 5 billion pounds per year (about 11 MdsE). According to them, the British GDP could enjoy a Brexit if the UK maintains its trade relations with the EU through a free trade agreement, on the model of the Switzerland and Norway, and if he signs new agreements with “natural” partners like the US and Australia … the decline in the pound, if predictable Brexit, would be a positive for the exports

A loss of 5,400 euros per year per household if Brexit?

supporters of the “in” claim to support education, the economy British rather suffer severely from a Brexit, chase away foreign investors and undermine the City of London, the world’s financial center with Wall Street. George Osborne, the finance minister, every British household would lose about 4,300 pounds of income per year (5,400 euros) in case of Brexit …

On the topic of sovereignty, pro-Brexit wish that their country regains control of its policy, including migration and trade, what they expect in case of divorce with the European Union. The anti-Brexit are however convinced that leaving the EU would lose influence in the UK in the world, and believe the country will be stronger if it remains within the EU.

5) What are the positions of the main political parties?

to the right of the political spectrum, Conservatives (Tories main political force in Britain) are divided 50/50 on Brexit, while the Liberals are in a majority holding in the EU and that the Ukip eurosceptic party campaigned vigorously for Brexit. Within the Tories, Prime Minister David Cameron, originally the referendum campaigns for the “In” but his main rival, Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, is the camp leader ‘Out’. ..

on the left, the Labour Party (Labour, the second political force of the country) is engaged almost unanimously in favor of “Bremain.” However, the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, it has -even a little trouble convincing his constituents, to the extent that he has long displayed Eurosceptic opinions …

the British voting Thursday for or against maintaining their country in the European Union does not necessarily follow the instructions of the party they are supporters … for the referendum on the Brexit, electoral divisions go well beyond the traditional parties, which are themselves divided from within the position to hold.

Among those favorable to “Bremain” (of Britain and “remain”: stay), we find especially the footballer David Beckham, the boss of Virgin, Richard Branson, filmmaker Ken Loach or the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby. In the camp Brexit are, in particular the former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, the leader of the party Ukip eurosceptic Nigel Farage, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, and James Dyson, creator of the vacuum cleaner of the same name.

6) What do the latest polls?

Until the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox, 16 June, polls showed a lead in the “Out”, then this event dramatic made up the slope to the supporters of the “in” before a new thrust of the “Out” from 21 June However, given a high number of undecided voters (at least 11%), these polls are unreliable.

Under these conditions, the financial markets, which have rebounded since June 17, preferred to rely on paris placed in the “bookies” Londoners. Two of the most important, William Hill and Paddy Power, were calculating on June 20 that the “Bremain” had a 82% probability of winning. Now these bookies were right in 2014, during the Scottish referendum, for which polls were also unclear.

7) What will the reaction of the financial markets?

The results of referendum will be known Friday morning and will have a significant impact on the securities as of the opening of markets. If Brexit wins, the most pessimistic considering the financial turmoil similar to that which followed the collapse of US bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008 …

In this scenario, the course of the sterling plunge into the night (the foreign exchange markets are the only ones left open 24 of 24), and Asian stock markets could accuse the coup. At the opening of European markets, equities should suffer, rates on British government bonds will tend, and the British and European Central Bank (ECB) would stand ready to intervene to avoid a brutal credit crunch on the interbank markets .

Conversely, if the camp “Bremain ‘prevails, global stock markets, as well as the pound sterling, should welcome this decision by a sharp increase.

8) If Brexit, what is the schedule?

If the British choose the path of Brexit they commit their countries in a vast field full of legal pitfalls, because the European treaties that allow including the customs union and free movement of goods and people, will cease to apply.

the ax will not fall so far overnight, far from it. the voluntary and unilateral withdrawal the EU is expected by the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, in its article 50. This article stipulates that in case of withdrawal, “the treaties shall cease to apply to the State making the request, as soon as the entry into force of the agreement, or at the latest two years after the notification of withdrawal. ” If necessary, the European Council may even decide unanimously to extend this period “in agreement with the Member State concerned”.

Specifically, the current rules will continue to apply until the conclusion this period of two years, during which Britain will have to tackle the daunting task to renegotiate new agreements with the EU.

9) is there a risk “contagion” in Europe?

If the UK left the EU, other countries might be tempted to follow the same path. In several European countries, Eurosceptic parties already sharpening their arguments in favor of a referendum on the UK model. This is particularly the case in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Hungary and even the Czech Republic …

Even if keeping London in the group of 28, some countries might be Brussels tempted to get waivers of the same type as those granted in the UK in February.

British Prime Minister David Cameron, then managed to reach an agreement on a special status for United -um, which notably provides for a “safeguard mechanism” on immigration. London will be able to suspend the payment of social allowances to EU nationals for a period of 7 years, if its public services or social security are overwhelmed by an influx of exceptional breadth of workers from other states Member

10) What will happen if expatriates Brexit?

A Brexit would end all the benefits provided by the European treaties for member countries of the Union, including the customs union and free movement of goods and people. Expatriates could then be resubmitted to the obligations of residence permit and work, which is not the case within the EU, where they can live and work without constraints …

in fact, it would not be in the interest of London to create trouble for the French community, which amounts to more than 300,000 people, including 200,000 in London. The UK would negotiate quickly with many countries of the European Union agreements to maintain big modo current rules. However, it would apply to limit mass immigration from certain countries of Eastern Europe.

French expatriates in the UK would be further threatened if their employers, especially large banks, decided to move from London to the Continent (Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Paris …) because of the many uncertainties created by the Brexit …

  – © 2016


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