FIGAROVOX/MAINTENANCE – The latest polls are not good for Nicolas Sarkozy, while his rival Alain Juppé earns points in voting intentions. For Christian Delporte, former president of the Republic has never managed to show that he had changed.
Professor at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and director of the magazine Time media, Christian Delporte is a historian, specialist in the history of the media, the image and communication policy. Published by Flammarion, he has published A history of the language of wood (2009) ; A story of the seduction of political(2011) and most recently Come back or the art of return policy(2014).
FIGAROVOX. – According to the barometer the Kantar-Tns-One Point for RTL/Le Figaro/LCI, Nicolas Sarkozy is down in the first round of the primaries of the right and of the centre (33%), while Alain Juppé further widening of the gap (39%). In August, the same pollster gave to a tie in the first round with 34% each. What do you think about this survey?
Christian DELPORTE. – Two remarks, first, on the investigation itself. First, remember that a survey, never a predictive one, is only a snapshot of opinion at a given time. Then, it focuses on a sample very small, with a big margin of error, which notably decreases the fluctuations from survey to survey. That said, Alain Juppé appears to be benefiting from the non-qualification of applicants who had been tested in August, but also the decline of other competitors, as Bruno Le Maire. In this latter case, one could speak of a “vote” in the minds of those who want to make dam to Nicolas Sarkozy, when he has progressed so far in the polls. Let us never forget that the polls influence voting and that the voters, in any way, “play” with them. In 2011, François Hollande, given largely winner, was the victim: while the polls in September-October he promised that between 44 and 49%, he had received only 39%. For the rest, the score of Sarkozy remains stable: the loss of a point has no meaning. In fact, it was Juppé who progresses.
Can we talk about a glass ceiling for the former president of the Republic?
The second round of the primary appears today as a referendum for or against Sarkozy.
The poll tested three hypotheses, depending on the rate of participation. In any case, Sarkozy is the first tour behind Juppé. But the greater the participation, the greater the gap is widening: 4 points with 1.8 million voters, 8 percentage points with 5.2 M. The figures reported in the press are based on a hypothesis 2.9 million, which is quite plausible. However, the other information from the survey is that, since August, the mobilisation of the electorate is higher. In other words, as the electoral body touches the kernel LR activists and supporters, Sarkozy remains well placed. But the more he grows, the more it touches the fringes of the least militant, the more it overflows into the center, the more the gap widens in favor of Juppé. Sarkozy has chosen a strategy clivante. In addressing a priority to the electorate more to the right, it ensures a stand that qualifies for the second round, but he deprives himself of all the rest of the voters whose share is growing in voting intentions. As for the second round, it appears today as a referendum for or against Sarkozy. However, very few voters who will have voted for The Mayor, Fillon, or NKM say, today, that they would choose.
Nicolas Sarkozy barely-there to convince because he is “the man of the liabilities” in the words of François Mitterrand to Valery Giscard d’estaing in 1981?
Sarkozy may not, as he wished to appear as the savior of the right.
For Sarkozy, there is a big difference: if it is supported by a core of activists and supporters assets that will follow him until the end, he is rejected by another part of the electorate of the right and center who want to turn the page. However, today, opinion surveys show that any candidate is RL or almost win in the second round of the presidential election and, best of all, Alain Juppé is the only one to arrive in the lead on the first lap in front of Marine Le Pen. In other words, Sarkozy may not, as he wished to appear as the savior of the right. His action is obviously a handicap (as it is, on another level, for the Netherlands). Despite his efforts to reorient the campaign themes, he fails to embody the novelty, and is continuously returned to its exercise of power. If “business” is viewed by its supporters as the manoeuvres of power, they leave the electorate more moderate who wants to win in 2017 without taking risks. Alain Juppé is today the beneficiary.
Is this also his attitude that is causing the problem?
Nicolas Sarkozy admitted to mistakes of behavior, but it has never managed to show that he had changed.
Nicolas Sarkozy, on his return, was admitted to errors of behaviour, but it has never managed to show that it had changed. On the contrary, he explained in his meetings that it was nothing, because its activists were waiting for the “real” Sarkozy. By doing this, it has not convinced the part of the electorate, right and centre, which felt excessive, too brutal. Wanting to stand out from its competitors on issues such as climate change and the question of identity, advancing formulas-shock, it has mobilized its troops, but away from the voters who are more moderate.
current Values, his former advisor Patrick Buisson, who has just published a book charge against the former president, explains: “Believe, elected against Marine Le Pen as prime minister François Baroin, the deconstructor of nurseries, Nicolas Sarkozy will make a policy right is made either an abysmal stupidity or extreme innocence“. What do you think of this judgement?
A President that does not take account of the global environment and apply blindly his agenda in the name of rigidity of the ideological would lead the country into the wall.
there are several ways to see a “political right” and it is not sure that the one designed by Patrick Buisson corresponds to that desired by voters, LR and IDU… That said, it does not advance the same arguments to campaign in an election internal as the primary, a campaign for the first round of the presidential election, where it broadens the base, and a campaign of second where it comes together. A policy without pragmatism is doomed to failure. We govern with a programme, of course, but also depending on the context. A President that does not take account of the european and global environment, the economic developments, the social situation, the state of readiness of the opinion, etc, and apply blindly his agenda in the name of rigidity of the ideological would lead the country into the wall. This is not denial, this is not cynicism, it is the realpolitik. The choice of François Baroin is part of it: if Sarkozy wants to win in 2017, he has to collect beyond his electorate faithful. Income at the Elysée, it should take into account the more moderate view that would have given her confidence. You don’t win and it governs poorly with a fraction of the public against all the others. Bush knows it but pretends not to know.