FIGAROVOX / GREAT SERVICE – Following the controversial passage of the Greek agreement, Fabien Escalona analyzes the ambiguous relations between the radical left of the old continent and the European Union
Fabien Escalona teaches at Sciences Po Grenoble and scientific collaborator at Cevipol (ULB). He is particularly interested in the evolution of the Left, and Social Democrats. He regularly writes on his blog, and has participated in several books, don t The Palgrave Handbook of Social Democracy in the European Union (2013).
Must the acceptance by Alexis Tsipras of a new austerity plan as a victory of the Troika of the European radical left?
Yes. Tsipras had to remain in the euro while stopping the spiral of deflation, the destruction of the social fabric and the magnification of the weight of debt relative to national wealth. But the “bad agreement” (in his words) he assumed before his majority and his people left her only belonging to the euro area. And again, the scenarios of a “Grexit” have not ceased to be mentioned, as this agreement seems lousy. Tsipras has certainly managed to escape the attempts to destabilize its European “partners” and must stay on the domestic political scene. For the rest, the agreement being validated based on the same revenue as in previous memoranda, which it is hard to believe that they will reach different results. This is added the lack of real commitment to restructuring / partial debt cancellation, although considered essential by most economists, and the return to power is a real political tutelage. In short, this is a very heavy defeat on the material, but also on the strategic plan: “alter-Europeanism” common to contemporary radical left needs to be defined with much more rigorously than hitherto.
This is a very heavy defeat on the material and strategic “alter-Europeanism” common to contemporary radical left needs to be defined much more rigor than before.
This agreement is indeed a heavy blow for the majority of Greeks who were opposed to such conditions during the July 5 referendum for Syriza and its unity, and for all the radical left parties who were supportive. The have been warned of the political lock the euro against all claims area to deviate from the planned discipline and creditor requirements. There they are also challenged to offer their own electorates strategies taking into account the extraordinary rigidity of the monetary regime and the European institutions. It is not enough to say that the end of austerity will be acquired based on the popular mandate and a few allies in the Eurogroup (given the solidarity of the current leaders -conservateurs, Liberals and Social Democrats alike-they would also necessarily minority).
What consequences the Greek case it can have on Podemos?
It is too early to anticipate the consequences of its performance in the legislative end of the year. It can still be argued that if a disorderly Grexit had taken place, the chaotic situation in Greece would have been quite a handicap for the campaign of Podemos. It will certainly not famous with the new memorandum, but these are the demands of European creditors that may be singled out by Iglesias and his friends (in fact, the Greek government no longer has economic sovereignty). Do not forget also that the reasons given by Tsipras to accept the aid plan is that this will allow it to last in power, the time to see other possible future governments led by forces anti- austerity.
That said, it is now up to Podemos to explain how it will do better than Tsipras. The French player can play Podemos, sure we can! (Indigenous Publishing, 2015) the analysis of the Spanish party leaders are of European integration and the euro area. According to them, the logic “center / periphery” of globalization it reproduces, with a South dominated by northern powers around Germany. However, they say they want to “reverse the European process, not leave Europe or the euro.” This is the line held by Iglesias in his recent interview with L’Observateur, where he is content to point the greater economic size of Spain with respect to Greece. It’s a little short since we have seen the pressures Tsipras was submitted in the last days, unarmed enough to resist blackmail.
Of course, Iglesias can not shoot down his game: you can not have a negotiation announced in advance all its tactical intentions. Advocate an exit from the euro would otherwise be a very damaging turnaround strategy for its majority, he who seeks instead to leave the enclave Podemos the protester left. He also explicitly supported the choice of Tspiras compared to the third memorandum. Still, the hypothesis of the end of austerity within the euro area has been severely damaged since 13 July. Again, the burden of demonstrating why it will succeed where Tsipras failed, and why it will be better than, say, a government of the Spanish Socialists much more accepted in the European arena.
I would add that in Ireland, the nationalist left party Sinn Féin has also adopted an anti-austerity line, around 20% in the polls (against 10% in the general elections of 2011) and was widely expressed solidarity with Syriza. For this party, a poll expected next spring, we will have the support of proclamations that it will free the eurozone discipline.
In France, the left she will unite behind Holland and we see already reveal fault lines?
The voting Assembly on the aid plan for Greece has already revealed these fractures. After some delays, the Left Front voted against. Environmentalists MPs are divided, quite consistently with the support or the confidence they usually express to the government. The success of the executive has been to crack the block slingers between advocates of a “yes” vote and voters. But anyway, he does not fear much from them. Finally, the Greek case does not change the fact that the socialist system of alliances has narrowed over the Netherlands presidency, and that pluralism of socialist sensibilities itself has declined in government. As for the attempt to Francois Hollande the savior of the integrity of the euro area, it could fizzle soon as the first failure of the bailout plan will appear.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has he a space opens for the 2017 presidential election?
The pieces he advanced in this and the criticism he been in his camp predate the outcome of Greek negotiations. Compared to the European question, he and his party have a programmatic step ahead in the Left Front. It shows a difference with the Communists, more cautious, which again does not date from earlier this month.
the Left Party postulates that in case of coming to power, he disobeyed the European treaties and assume a political crisis.
Indeed, this is a moment that the PG is no longer content to appeal to an “other” or “good euro”. From 2011, and so even clearer after the Cypriot event (the ECB applied a monetary him blockade) party posits that in case of coming to power, he disobeyed the European treaties and assume a political crisis. If he had to choose between his eco-socialist bifurcation and the euro, he would abandon the currency after attempting to redefine the rules to fall back on alternatives such as a common currency, a Euro-South or return to national currencies.
In addition to the positive or negative evaluations that may relate to the substance of the plan, its existence reflects an intellectual flexibility on this issue, which is an asset in the current circumstances. But the choice of a presidential candidate will depend on many other factors (state of public opinion and social movements, internal balances FCP …).
The National Front can it become the receptacle of all the Eurosceptic right and left?
At the level of organizations and politicians, I I never believed in this kind of scenario. Even regarding politicized the electorate, it seems fragile. The currency and the European institutions, it is important, but underestimated the antagonism of values and political cultures associated with good old opposition right / left. If the FN remains as it is, would have the supposed “Eurosceptic left” Gobble national priority and anti-multicultural obsession. Moreover, some of them deny European integration because it would be an obstacle to the social relations of productivism detached and capital supremacy. However, the FN is in no way hostile to the exploitation of wage labor for profit: simply, this should be done primarily with and between French.
In its depths, the party remains cons-revolutionary inspiration: his all-out criticism of the present society is based on nostalgia rather than an ideal of the future, and especially its legitimate desire to “change leaders “who have failed with other leaders. When opponents of European integration lie in conscience left, it is usually because they do not adhere to that! However, to a wider audience, it is clear that the FN can take advantage of the situation in Europe for the code in confrontation “nation against nation” and pose as privileged guarantor of French interests. For this, one may refer to their votes in Maastricht and TCE favors, and other partisan to their proximity to Tsipras that would not resist.
After the referendum on Maastricht, Charles Pasqua (Philippe Séguin?) Launched “nothing will ever be.” Can we say that after the Greek case?
The institutional pillars of the monetary regime that is the euro are set up before the Greek case. They just play today “full performance” so to speak, and their anti-social and democratic dimension became public. From this point of view it seems to me to be a turning point. Many supporters of European integration and the single currency were suddenly put to describe it in terms that would have been denounced as excessive or crypto-nationalists there a few weeks or months.
Many supporters of European and integration of the single currency were suddenly put to describe it in terms that would have been denounced as excessive or crypto -nationalistes there a few months.
We could call it the “moment Dorian Gray” proponents of the European ideal. In the novel by Oscar Wilde, the hero passes a kind of pact that allows it to retain its beauty while his portrait painted by his friend Basil Hallward, receives in its place the withering of age and above pettiness and cruelty which Gray is guilty. At the end of the novel, Dorian Gray’s portrait reveals to Basil that he hardly recognized behind the hideous features that now sports. “This is the face of my soul,” says he collapsed to his friend who laments: “Goodness! Dorian, what a lesson! What an awful lesson! “. Beyond the radical left challenged to build a finer strategy before, I feel that many proponents of the European ideal, to the left but not only find themselves since 13 July in the Basil Hallward situation.
No comments:
Post a Comment