Tuesday, September 6, 2016

A survey gives Macron before Hollande in the first round – The World

 Francois Hollande and Emmanuel Macron in March  2016.

François Hollande (Socialist Party, PS) would be eliminated in all cases in the first round of presidential elections according to a TNS Sofres poll for Le-OnePoint Figaro and LCI, broadcast on the evening of Tuesday, September 6th. Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy (Republicans, LR) and Marine Le Pen (Front National, FN) are themselves qualified for the second round.

The survey of opinion is testing nine different assumptions of candidates left and right each time with Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière, LO), Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist party, NPA), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (left party, PG) Cécile Duflot (Europe ecology-Greens, EELV), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (France Arise, DLF), Jacques Cheminade (Solidarity and progress, SP) and Marine Le Pen (FN)

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assuming Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!), François Bayrou (Democratic Movement, MoDem) and Nicolas Sarkozy are candidates in front of him or in which he is MM opposed. Macron and Alain Juppe, Francois Hollande get 11 points in the first round. It would reap 15 points if it is only opposed to Mr. Sarkozy, in addition to seven persons in all tested scenarios

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Macron leading to “left”

the survey tested three configurations with Arnaud Montebourg as representative of PS. Whatever the candidate of the majority party, it is widely anticipated by Emmanuel Macron, which get 15 to 20%, depending on the case. The former minister of productive recovery would gather of 5 to 7%, while Mr Hollande would beat every time by his former minister

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon gets meanwhile 10 to 13% of the vote, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan of 3 to 7%, Cécile Duflot 2 to 4.5%. Philippe Poutou does not exceed 2.5%, 2% and Nathalie Arthaud Jacques Cheminade 1%. In all cases tested, it is the candidates LR (Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy) and Marine Le Pen for the National Front who would qualify for the second round.

26-29% Le Pen

the mayor of Bordeaux realize his highest score (33%) against the far-right candidate (29%) and François Hollande (14%). This is the only case where among the new M me Le Pen would not be in the lead in the first round

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In the same configuration but with Nicolas Sarkozy won the primary for the right rather than Mr. Juppé, the candidate LR get 27% of the vote against 29% for the FN leader. It oscillates between 26 and 29% of the vote according to the hypotheses.

For supporters of the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (23%) would be “the best left candidate for the 2017 presidential election “, before Francois Hollande (20%), Emmanuel Macron (18%), Manuel Valls (9%) and Arnaud Montebourg (8%). Mr Hollande (33%) ahead of Mr Macron (26%) among single PS sympathizers.

Online Survey conducted from September 2 to 5 with a “sample of 1006 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over” using the quota method.


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