Tuesday, September 6, 2016

François Hollande eliminated in all cases – The Point

François Hollande would be eliminated in all cases in the first round of presidential elections according to a TNS Sofres poll for-OnePoint Le Figaro LCI and released Tuesday, while Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy and Marine Le Pen would they qualified for the second round. This poll is testing nine different assumptions of candidates left and right each time with Nathalie Arthaud (LO), Philippe Poutou (NPA), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Cécile Duflot (EELV), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF), Jacques Cheminade and Marine Le Pen (FN).

François Hollande is between 11 points in the first round (assuming Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou and Nicolas Sarkozy candidates facing him or in the event and Alain Emmanuel Macron Juppe) and 15 points if it is against Nicolas Sarkozy as an additional candidate, besides the seven tested in all cases. Whichever candidate left, Hollande is beaten in the first round, while in the six hypotheses tested with former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron, it would get more votes than the head of state, from 15 to 20% depending on case. The former Minister of Productive Recovery Arnaud Montebourg gets him 5 to 7% depending on the assumptions.

Alain Juppe 33%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon gets meanwhile 10 to 13% of the vote, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan of 3 to 7%, Cécile Duflot 2 to 4.5%. Philippe Poutou does not exceed 2.5%, 2% and Nathalie Arthaud Jacques Cheminade 1%. In all tested hypotheses, it is the candidates LR (Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy) and Marine Le Pen for the National Front who would qualify for the second round. The mayor of Bordeaux realize his highest score (33%, -2) against Marine Le Pen (29%) and François Hollande (14%). This is the only case among new where Marine Le Pen would not be in the lead in the first round.

In the same configuration but with Nicolas Sarkozy won the primary rather Alain Juppe, the first would get 27% of the vote against 29% for the extreme right leader. It oscillates between 26 and 29% of the vote according to the assumptions. For supporters of the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (23%) would be “the best left candidate for the 2017 presidential election,” before Francois Hollande (20%), Emmanuel Macron (18%), Manuel Valls ( 9%) and Arnaud Montebourg (8%). François Hollande (33%) ahead of Emmanuel Macron (26%) among single PS sympathizers. Online survey conducted September 2 to 5 with a “sample of 1006 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over” by the quota method.


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