Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Holland loser whatever happens in 2017, according to a survey – The Obs

Francois Hollande would be eliminated in all cases in the first round of presidential elections according to a TNS Sofres poll for-OnePoint “Le Figaro” and LCI aired Tuesday, September 6, while Alain Juppé or Nicolas Sarkozy and Marine Le Pen would they qualified for the second round.

the survey tested nine different assumptions of candidates left and right each time with Nathalie Arthaud (LO), Philippe Poutou (NPA) Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Cécile Duflot (EELV), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF), Jacques Cheminade and Marine Le Pen (FN).

Arnaud Montebourg between 5 and 7%

François Hollande is between 11 points in the first round (assuming Emmanuel Macron, François Bayrou and Nicolas Sarkozy candidates facing him or in the event Emmanuel Macron and Alain Juppé) and 15 points if it is against Nicolas Sarkozy as additional candidate, besides the seven tested in all cases.

Whichever candidate left, Hollande is beaten in the first round, while in the six hypotheses tested with the former Minister of Economy Emmanuel Macron, it would get more votes than the head of state, 15 to 20% depending on the case. The former Minister of Productive Recovery Arnaud Montebourg gets him 5 to 7% depending on the assumptions.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon gets meanwhile 10 to 13% of the vote, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 3 to 7%, Cécile Duflot 2 to 4.5%. Philippe Poutou does not exceed 2.5%, 2% and Nathalie Arthaud Jacques Cheminade 1%.

Mélenchon, “the best” for the leftist sympathizers

In all assumptions tested, it is the candidates LR (Alain Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy) and Marine Le Pen for the National Front who would qualify for the second round. The mayor of Bordeaux realize his highest score (33%, -2) against Marine Le Pen (29%) and François Hollande (14%). This is the only case among new where Marine Le Pen would not be in the lead in the first round. In the same configuration but with Nicolas Sarkozy won the primary rather than Alain Juppe, the first to win 27% of votes against 29% for the extreme right leader. It oscillates between 26 and 29% of the vote according to the hypotheses.

For supporters of the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (23%) would be “the best left candidate for president 2017 “before Francois Hollande (20%), Emmanuel Macron (18%), Manuel Valls (9%) and Arnaud Montebourg (8%). François Hollande (33%) ahead of Emmanuel Macron (26%) among single PS sympathizers.

Online Survey conducted from September 2 to 5 with a “sample of 1,006 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over “by the quota method.


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