Thursday, September 1, 2016

Presidential 2017: Macron why the chances of success are microscopic – USAinformations

Emmanuel Macron, the hard part begins. After resigning from the government, Tuesday, August 30, the former economy minister now wants to wear with other [draft] for our country “. “This project, we want to bring the 2017″ , insists the former protégé of François Hollande.

If it has not yet announced his candidacy for president, Emmanuel Macron now clearly displays its ambition. To be present in the first round of the election in April 2017, it will now have to face a formidable obstacle course. Here are the reasons why the chances of the former minister to carry out his presidential business are slim.

Because a presidential candidate must be at the head of a war machine

It displays an insolent popularity but Emmanuel Macron currently appears very isolated on the political scene. According to Le Monde (Article subscribers) only three Socialist deputies openly support and Gérard Collomb, Senator Mayor of Lyon PS. For its part, the Socialist deputy Pascal Terrasse ensures that a “fifteen deputies [supports] the action of Emmanuel Macron and I would say twenty senators” . Not what constitute a strong political network to support and thus collect the necessary 500 sponsorships elected to run in the presidential election.

Macron will learn that in the old country called France, can not be elected president without strong political apparatus or important springs in the territories.

A Socialist Party leader

in ” the World “

the movement of the former tenant of Bercy, Power Up! , founded in April, claims 60,000 members. But membership, free, takes just a few clicks on the web. impossible to compare Power Up! with a political organization capable of mobilizing its activists on the ground, and organized so that his troops cover the entire French territory. Finally, to compete for the presidency, there must be substantial financial resources. For this, the former investment banker will have to play its address book, thickened by passage to the Ministry of Economy.

Because before him, other free electrons failed

Before Emmanuel Macron, many other candidates, popular in the polls but joined the race for president without strong political structure , have failed. In 1965 Lecanuet made figure of a man new face to General de Gaulle and François Mitterrand. Controlling the TV codes, “it running a campaign ‘to the US’ based on political marketing techniques developed across the Atlantic” recalls RFI. Lecanuet does not pass the first round, totaling 15.6% of the vote, behind Mitterrand (31.7%) and De Gaulle (44.6%).

We can also cite the case of Michel Rocard, who failed in the first round of the 1969 presidential election with 3.1% of votes. He will try in 1981 and in 1994, after being a popular Prime Minister yet embodying the “second left”, to represent the left, without success. Another example is that of the Nicolas Hulot former television host, yet with a strong approval rating, which is still beating in 2011 when the primary environmentalists face Eva Joly.

Because the popularity does not necessarily translate at the polls

the popularity of Emmanuel Macron is “only a good starting base” says USAinformations to Jean-Daniel Levy, director of the political department and opinion of Harris Interactive. But nothing guarantees that this strong popularity is reflected in the polls. “Popularity is multiple, but the vote is exclusive” , remember Jean-Daniel Levy.

Today we can be right and love both Alain Juppé and Emmanuel Macron, for example . But when we vote, it only takes one note.

Jean-Daniel Levy, pollster Harris Interactive


in addition, the line “neither right nor left” the former economy minister could turn against him. “Beside voters on the left, it is only the ninth favorite minister. And on the right, especially voters want to get rid of Francois Hollande, Emmanuel Macron which still remains bound.”

It is also difficult to anticipate how the French will receive the reasons for his resignation. Either they will see this as a kind of personal adventure, with a risk of erosion of his popularity, either there has the perception of a political dynamic of its own “ says the specialist Harris Interactive. ” the resignations of Cécile Duflot, Benoît Hamon and Arnaud Montebourg not created dynamically opinions. Unlike that of Christiane Taubira. ” Finally, Jean-Daniel Levy believes that the weeks and months ahead will be decisive for Emmanuel Macron: “He will have to show that he has a project, the move In March work, and continue! to occupy the media space then it will no longer minister. “

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