Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Presidential 2017: Holland missing in the 2nd round in most cases – L’Express

Despite a resurgence in popularity after the attacks of November 13, François Hollande barely lasting appeal to French voters. As shown by a poll Ifop-Fiducial released Tuesday, the current head of state, if by chance he chose to APPLY to his estate in 2017, would not qualify for the second round of the presidential election, little important than his opponent, right or Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppe.

As hard summarizes the survey, Hollande would have a chance to qualify to the second round in the event of a bid Bruno Le Maire to the right, which has finally formalize his participation in the primary of the right and center.

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Holland in third position behind the FN …

In assumption of an application Alain Juppe , it come in first in the first round, with 30% of the vote (unchanged from a previous survey in December), before Marine Le Pen, 27% (+1), and the current head of state credited with 16% (-4.5). François Bayrou would receive 8.5% (+2) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% (1.5), according to the survey for iTV, Paris Match and Sud Radio.

If Bayrou would not run, Alain Juppe would collect 35% (+1) of the votes in the first round, before Marine Le Pen, 28% (1.5) and François Hollande, 18% (-2.5).

If Nicolas Sarkozy was the candidate of the Republicans, the president of FN come in first with 25% (-2), ahead of former head of state, 21% (stable), and François Hollande 18% (-4). In this case, François Bayrou would receive 15% (+3) of the votes and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 11.5% (+ 2.5%).

In the case of an application for François Fillon , Marine Le Pen would come out more clearly in the lead, with 28% (-1), followed by former Prime Minister (- 1.5) and the current head of State (-5) tied at 18%. In this hypothesis, François Bayrou would collect 14.5% (+ 4.5%) of the votes and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12% (+3).

The ecologists relegated far behind

In all these cases envisaged by the polling institute, the green of the score would be brilliant. If Cécile Duflot had to wear the candidacy of the Green Party, it would garner only 2 to 3% of the votes.

Last situation envisaged: François Hollande as the candidate of “Union of the Left”, without nominations or Jean-Luc Mélenchon – which formalized its intention early February – or environmentalists. In this case, the current head of state would get 22% of the vote and come second to Nicolas, who would collect only 21.5% of the vote. He then qualify for the second round against Le Pen.

Online Study conducted from February 17 to 19, with 1,843 people registered on the electoral lists, according to the quota method.


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