Arnaud Montebourg threw -to distance- very cold in the consensus of the Socialist Party Congress in Poitiers this weekend, signing a forum vitriolic in the JDD with the “banker left “Matthieu Pigasse. Their thesis: the executive continues ineffective austerity policy which stifles growth, poorer households, exploded unemployment and precipitates voters to the National Front. The demonstration is however not very well supported …
According to the former minister, the austere dictates of the European Union have caused the “loss of purchasing power for the middle class by rising household samples are considerable (1,650 euros on average per household in three years according to OFCE). “
What says INSEE? The household purchasing power has actually declined by 0.7% in 2011, 1.7% in 2012 and 0.8% in 2013. Hence the average loss calculated by the institute OFCE conditions, of 1630 euros in three years. By cons, in 2014, slowing inflation allowed the purchasing power to recover 0.4%. Furthermore, tax increases were mainly targeted at the wealthiest households. The middle classes are more adversely affected by rising unemployment, which affected revenues, as a direct fiscal austerity measures.
The austerity explain “the exponential rise in unemployment – over 600,000 more unemployed in three years! “Knowing that a GDP growth of 1% for 2015,” it is not enough to reduce unemployment. “
According to job center at the end of April, the Metropolitan France was counting 641 200 job seekers more than in April 2012. And according to Eurostat, the unemployment rate reached a record 10% in late March. For most economists, it would reach 1.3% to 1.5% growth to reverse the unemployment curve. However, it should be noted that unemployment is less tied to austerity policies that the labor market structure and population dynamics. If it exploded after the austerity cures in Greece (25.4% at end March) and Spain (22.7%), there is now in decline as it continues to rise in France and Italy ( 12.4%) which rigor has been less severe. And it is the lowest in the UK (5.4%), which has had a real tightening screws, because of the development of very low-paid jobs.
says Montebourg yet that “we also understand why business failures in France (over 60 000 per year) does not always decrease. “
The number of bankruptcies, 62,073 in 2014 according to Coface, is still very high compared to its pre-crisis level (from 43,000 to 50,000) but has started its decline, with a decline of 2.7% between April 2014 and 2015. In any case, the rise in bankruptcies can not be attributed solely to the fiscal consolidation policy but rather to the drying up of their markets due to several years of crisis.
Last claim, stimulus policy, unlike that of Brussels, is “supported by the IMF and the OECD.”
The truth is more ambiguous. Both institutions are certainly concerned about the global anemic growth and demand a raise … but through private investment and continued structural reforms with tax cuts to households! In an interview with Voices in September, Christine Lagarde, IMF boss, even thought there was “no hardship in the euro area” France called the “stay the course of the reduction of public spending.”
Gaëlle Macke and David Bensoussan for ChalengeSoir
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