The question of when and how Nicolas Sarkozy declared his candidacy for the primary right now is totally secondary. The president’s Republican campaign. He declines every week a new component of its program. It multiplies public meetings and interviews of all kinds. In short, it is preparing to enter the fray on the mode of evidence. Whether at the beginning or end of summer does not interest that journalists should comment on the event when it occurs. We guess that they would like that is not in the middle of their annual leave.
Since it entered active campaign, Nicolas Sarkozy has hardly improved its position in the polls. His popularity remains poor for a man who does not carry the burden of power. There is no impetus or push sensitive in his favor. Just a confidence block that is not insignificant and that allows him to appear in a good standing in the primary voting intentions even Alain Juppe continues to strengthen its domination on the right of government.
obvious candidate, Nicolas Sarkozy is also a candidate dominated. It is not the favorite in his camp and precisely, he said, making it likely if its future success. In politics, there are classics. Anyone who has been beaten explains that with fifteen additional days of campaign, victory was at the rendezvous. Anyone who is struggling to impose early in the race said that experience, it never goes as planned and that the champions, designated as such by the media, are seldom the winners at the finish line.
At all costs keep its troops mobilized
Nicolas Sarkozy does not innovate. He had served the first argument when François Hollande defeated him in May 2012. It uses the second, four years later, when he aspires to compete again. Convene “ surprised ‘when one is in the cabbage is basically ruining both the analysis and prognosis. If nothing makes sense, if everything is inherently unpredictable, as indeed refrain from any comment. This is besides the desired effect …
However, experience shows that the so-called surprise is not always what you into an election campaign and, even more so in a presidential campaign. There was a past mishaps – DSK and the Sofitel New York, for example – which have changed the situation by modifying the offer. One could also see candidates too poorly positioned – Balladur in 1995 – to go the distance. At the same time, it was obvious – still in 1995 – in the absence of Jacques Delors, the left was losing the Elysee. Also in 2012, all the polls predicted a long defeat of the right which, in fact, ended up happening. Nicolas Sarkozy is well placed to know!
The argument of surprise, as Zorro, arises in the countryside and changes the course, is purely rhetorical. This is the one used when the candidates are trying to keep in the race, mobilizing their troops. He has no other practical purpose than to remember what is obvious. A race is not over until it is completed! At the same time, the one who, before the final sprint, dominates its competitors in the head and shoulders is not necessarily the least well placed to win the event. These are platitudes that almost ashamed to remember. Except that they are ordinary analysis of Sarkozy. Pushing it to the end, would be to not otherwise be entitled to support that one day or the other, in a presidential election, the surprise will be that there are not …
a readership omen of an electorate?
When it becomes serious, Nicolas Sarkozy puts forward two arguments that justify, in his eyes, we do not bury even before the start of the official competition. The first is the sales of his book and the reception given to him when organizing signings. However, it is a bestseller election? If that were the case Christiane Taubira would be the next President of the Republic. That said, it is true that we see around Nicolas Sarkozy fervor that are not found around his competitors in the primary, right.
From there to think that his groupies form the forefront of a silent army that, in time, take away everything in its path, there is not as interested now passes without complex. A force to explain Alain Juppe is a reincarnation of Edouard Balladur, promised the same fate, Nicolas Sarkozy simply forget the example of Ségolène Royal who, in another primary – that of the left in 2011 – believed she also, it could rekindle the fire. Polls wore more the pinnacle but it was during his travels every reason to hope. Ségolène star continued to draw crowds. Except that at the time of voting, all this is diluted in the polls. There is, in any case, something curious to hear today the president of Republicans remember that popularity has never been an election and then explain that immediately draws its readership, obviously, contours of his electorate and announced at the same time, momentum of comparable strength.
the second argument advanced by Nicolas Sarkozy is related to the first. In challenging the reliability of polls, in the case of a primary to participation still unclear, he forgets the passage in 2011, they had learned to appreciate the favorites scores. However, it points to a problem, in fact, can not be discharged from a back of the hand. An election is always a mobilization exercise. To win, you have to train the hard core of voters concerned about the election. Or what is it in a competition that aims first to choose between candidates that nothing fundamentally opposed?
All shades of right
Nicolas Sarkozy obviously considered the core of the primary focuses of the right first … right. It does not seem to see continuity between the militant right – the one that brought him to the head of the Republicans – and the primary right – one that will select its champion for president. If read closely, you may even conclude that in his eyes, the line in 2017, will be the next President of the Republic, is a variation of the foregoing. Basically, it’s like, to Nicolas Sarkozy, moderation had no place in these competitions that logically fit into each other.
In doing so, he draws a conclusion a little summary of presidential elections under the fifth Republic. Right, Raymond Barre and Edouard Balladur have indeed failed to qualify for the second round in 1988 and 1995, opposite Jacques Chirac. But this is to forget the case of Valery Giscard d’Estaing, elected in 1974 and now in the decisive round in 1981. They forget also that on the left, François Mitterrand won twice by presenting himself as the candidate of “ the quiet force ” then “ the united France .” But it is especially not to admit that the primary is a unique competition that has unique and original modalities laws. If the core of the primary was the heart of the public activist, why for example that in 2011, François Hollande was designated the expense of Martine Aubry, then first secretary of the PS?
The competition looks, right, has very little to do with that under the Fifth, usually between two candidates of the same camp at the 1 st round of presidential elections. This is also why in the example of Edouard Balladur, so often quoted by Nicolas Sarkozy, is worth little to understand what can happen in the primary this fall. Supporters of the right does not have to referee a duel but to select a candidate between six or seven who will vie for their votes. Very clever one who can say, then, which is the break with the policies in France for decades.
Just read their programs today to see they embody all shades the right. None departs fundamental of his camp. The postures of some are sometimes steeper than those of others. The substantive differences, at least in the display, remain marginal. Facing the favorite of the competition – Alain Juppé in this case – Nicolas Sarkozy has not, in any case, the monopoly of a positioning that would put him in position to embody alone the supposed core of his electorate. Does it more experienced than the mayor of Bordeaux, who was prime minister, to deal with the crisis? Has he shown more radical in the exercise of power? He offers solutions harsher than those advanced by François Fillon? Is it more innovative as Bruno Le Maire? And so on …
The one that can claim monopoly Nicolas Sarkozy today is a handicap. It is that of having already faced Francois Hollande and being beaten by it. Imagine the heart of the right does not stick against him is a bet that borders on recklessness. While this does not immediately eliminate a competition that has not yet officially begun. If that were the case, there would be no reason for Nicolas Sarkozy still wants to run in a primary where he has no place.
One can of course imagine that his temperament pushes to try to force the destiny costs. We may even believe sometimes that it is his turn victim of these self-persuasion phenomena that caused others before him, to fight the battle too. It is there that goes to the “ surprise ” Nicolas Sarkozy invoked as if it was his last hope to reverse the course of things. In this case, it would be better to talk about one of those chances that a crapshoot, as Mallarmé said, has never been able to abolish.