Sunday, January 29, 2017

Presidential : Fillon and Macron elbow-to-elbow, Pen in head – Le Figaro

POLL – According to a poll by Kantar Sofres-One Point for RTL, Le Figaro and LCI, François Fillon, and Emmanuel Macron would get 22 % and 21% in the first round of the presidential election, ahead of Marine Le Pen.

A great wind of uncertainty blows over the presidential election. Carried out on 26 and 27 January, our survey Kantar Tns-OnePoint for RTL, Le Figaro and LCI shows that the accusations of ‘ghost’ employees launched against the couple Fillon have had an impact on voting intentions in the first round. In fact, our survey measures a tightening between François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron now elbow-to-elbow with, respectively, 22% and 21 % if François Bayrou was not presented. The qualification of Marine Le Pen in the second round is the most likely hypothesis at this point with 25% of the vote. But regardless of his final opponent, the president of the national Front fought a duel. As to the dynamic Hamon, with 15% of the vote, it could allow the candidate of the PS ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, relegated to the fifth place with only 10% of voting intentions.

Marine Le Pen is beaten in the second round in all cases

“three months of the presidential election, we can talk about a gap between Fillon and Macron, which is more than the thickness of the line,” says Emmanuel Rivière, the director-general France Kantar Public. “In this particular context of the revelation of the affair of the jobs are fictitious, the qualification of Fillon in the second round is no longer guaranteed,” according to Emmanuel Rivière, who says that “the stalling of the candidate of the right and of the centre in relation to its dominant position in the aftermath of his victory at the primary is not entirely due to his legal troubles, but a consolidation of its dynamic campaign”.

Another sign of concern for François Fillon: he would beat Marine Le Pen at 60 % against 40% of the votes, while Emmanuel Macron, to him, would exist the gap to 65 % of the vote against 35 % for the president of the national Front. Emmanuel Rivière believes that this differential “is as much the setbacks of recent ex-prime minister that the position is very rigid, which it had adopted after the primary on both the social issues and societal”. “The choice between Fillon and The Pen appears to be complicated for a voter of the left”, summarizes the director-general of France Kantar Public.

Click here to enlarge the infographic

a Few tricks

In this “match for the second place”, according to the formula of the echo sounder, François Fillon still has a few advantages: in terms of “safety choice”, it is at 61 %, while the founder of power up! is only 41 %. “The dynamic is quite favourable to Macron, but the strength, rather in favour of Fillon,” sums up Emmanuel Rivière.

Benoît Hamon happen in front of Jean-Luc Mélenchon

To the left, the qualification of Benoît Hamon appears as a factor of additional uncertainty, even if it does not overturn the deal. Until now, the winner of the primary, whatever it is, seemed to be ordered to get fifth in the first round. In our investigation, the candidate of the PS lady the pawn to Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 15 % of voting intentions, compared to 10 % to the leader of France insubordinate. What would Mélenchon its score of the 2012 presidential election. “A new game in the match is created, and it is totally open, because there is a great fluidity between the two electorates,” said Emmanuel Rivière. According to him, the “challenge” for the candidate of France insubordinate is to overcome “the competition that makes Hamon to the left of the PS, with the advantage of appearing as a new man then that he is a member of the socialist Party for the last twenty-five years”. Mélenchon, therefore, must renew his / her speech compa red to the one he held during his last presidential campaign and to show that there is a force of proposal, the key to the success of Hamon being to ensure that the debate revolves around these ideas.

Macron would largely Fillon in the case of face-to-face in the second round

The ex-leader of the left Front can also hope that the supporters of the socialist who supported Manuel Valls reacted to the defeat of their champion by scattering and by joining Emmanuel Macron. If this was the case, the progression of Benoît Hamon may be at least in part, initiated.

“The movement of the electorate to the other is facilitated by the presence in the competition of the founder of power up!, note Emmanuel Rivière. It upsets the balance and creates bridges.” The instability of the correlation of forces has prompted Kantar Tns-OnePoint to test a second round of Macron-Fillon. The ex-minister of the Economy would beat the candidate of the right, 58 % against 42 %. “This is not a hypothesis that seems to come out of the relation of forces,” explains the echo sounder, but we didn’t want to give the feeling that there would be duels have been announced, and that things would be fixed, three months before the election.”


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