“A very clear choice now presents itself to us, to you : the choice between defeat is assured, and the victory possible, the choice between promises and unrealistic and infinançables (sic) and a left credible who assumes the responsibilities of the country” : as of Sunday evening, Manuel Valls has targeted its attacks against Benoît Hamon, arrived in head at the first turn, on the credibility of these measures and their quantification.
Precisely, what is the cost of the phare measures the candidate’s rebellious ? And how does it fund them ?
Europe, 1 was drawn into the light of the programme’s budget of Benoît Hamon.
Expenses : all for the universal income
The universal income of existence
In its programme, Benoît Hamon describes the process of creating its income, universal existence : “From 2018, the RSA will be increased by 10% to€ 600 and paid automatically to all rights-holders. In the same year, a basic income will be paid to all young people from 18 to 25 years regardless of their level of resources. This income will then be extended to the whole of the population. Eventually, it will reach the sum of 750 euros.”
By remaining deliberately fuzzy, Benoît Hamon reserves the right to round the corners of his universal income. In particular, it may decide to pay for more than 25 years with a condition of resources. In an interview with Release, he alludes to a possible ceiling to 2,000 euros of income per person. Mergers, partial with several other allocations are also contemplated.
Benoît Hamon said that once fully in place, his universal income of 750 euros will cost 300 billion euros per year to the State. A non-negligible cost since it is equivalent to more than 13% of French GDP. For Manuel Valls, Benoît Hamon under-estimated the cost of its universal income, rather situated, according to him, around 350-400 billion. The Montaigne Institute has cut the pear in two the encryption. For the think tank, the universal income will cost 305, 349, or $ 424 billion euros per year at cruising speed, depending on whether the applicant deletes some of the aids family or not.
In the event that Benoît Hamon would choose to set a ceiling for allocation to 2,000 euros, the universal income of existence would, according to the Institut Montaigne, a gross cost (pre-income induced) of 260 billion euros, compared with 372 in the case of the allocation to the entire population.
improving the educational system
the winner of The first round, attaches great importance to national Education, without regard to the cost. He would like to enhance rapidly the pay of teachers, to increase their number of annual days of training (3.5 or 10 according to length of service) and set up a free help with homework.
No amount is specified for the upgrading of teachers ‘ salaries. It is not known what course of study would be concerned. As A comparison, when the primary right and centre, Bruno The Mayor had proposed a revaluation of 8 % for those who teach at the primary school, 11 per cent for those who teach at the college and 13 per cent for associate professors. The ensemble was estimated by the Institut Montaigne, at a cost of 2.2 billion euros per year.
On the training, the Court of auditors estimated in 2012 that the device would cost 1 billion euros per year for an average of 2.5 days per teacher. On the basis of an average distribution of the increase of training days, the think tank believes that the measure would cost € 1 billion more per year.
Finally, in regards to free help with homework, it is virtually impossible to quantify the costs. The device is already available for children who request it. Interviewed by Europe1.fr on the cost of the proposal, Régis Juanico, spokesman Benoît Hamon, gave an order of magnitude very vague : “The national Education must be a priority. I think that we should not be difficult to find 500 million euros for it, or even a little more”.
Among the many proposals for Benoît Hamon, many are not precisely chifféres and thus impossible to budget for. He wants to upgrade the SMIC and the index point of public servants, but does not say in what proportions. It propose to create a value added incentive for products with low carbon footprint, but again, no number. He wants to launch a major investment plan for the energy renovation but did not give the amount or strengthen the defence budget, and the reach 3% of GDP…
Revenue : taxes and fees
Taxation of households
Benoît Hamon wants to apply the individualisation of the income tax. Today, for couples who are married or in a civil partnership, the income tax is calculated through the quotient conjugal : you add up the income of the spouses, is divided into two equal shares (more if they have children through the quotient familial), and we apply to each schedule of the income tax. According to the website information of administration of the government, thanks to the quotient conjugal “60% of couples married or in a civil partnership to pay less tax than if they were taxed separately”.
Benoît Hamon also wants to introduce a flat tax, “simple and progressive” heritage. He wishes to merge the land tax and wealth tax, too complex, and sources of distortions that allow “the wealthiest households to avoid them”.
The individualization in it-even the income tax would bring in € 6 billion per year to the State, says the Institute Montaigne. Well that Benoît Hamon is not specifically stated, the individuation would certainly be the removal of the family quotient, a gain of 13 billion euros, its “cost” of the current. In total, the proposal would bring in $ 19 billion per year, and even 24 according to Benoît Hamon.
Concerning the single tax on the heritage, it is not possible to know how much it will earn precisely. This measure, however, aims to better supervise the taxation of heritage and is expected to generate additional revenue for the State.
the winner of The first round of the primary in favour of an increased level of control of practices of tax optimization of the companies. “I am happy to adapt our tax system and our constitutional rules for the GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple) there are more then that they have a permanent establishment in France,” writes the candidate.
Another measure which has done much to talk about, the creation of a “tax the robots”. The proposal of Benoît Hamon is to tax the wealth created by the machines that replace human labor (such as ticket machines) so that it does not fall only in the moneybag of the shareholders. Specifically, he wants to “apply social security contributions on the overall value-added and not just on the job.”
If he manages to impose more strictly the multinationals, especially in the digital, which benefit from tax arrangements, the benefits could be significant for the State in the light of the business figures of these companies. Google has paid that $ 6.7 million of income taxes in 2015, but the parquet national financier asks for 1.6 billion euros to compensate for its tax practices of the past ten years.
For the “tax the robots”, it is impossible at present to assess the potential revenues of such a proposal. It should be the account company by company according to the proportion of mechanized labor to have replaced the human labor.
Finally, the packaging of the YEAR “to the attainment of objectives of job creation, ecological progress, and a reduction of working time” should generate some savings compared to the device non-conditioning current.
In a column published by Echoes, Benoît Hamon plans “with caution,” a “fusion target” of his universal income with the minimum social benefits (€23 billion), housing assistance ($ 18 billion) or family benefits ($ 53 billion) ; it account delete, about 84 billion euros of tax loopholes, those that are unfair and ineffective ; the fight against evasion and tax optimization would be repatriated € 80 billion…
A program to specify
at the present time, the proposals of Benoît Hamon are not balanced on the budget plan, and Manuel Valls could legitimately attack him on this point. In particular, since the program of the rebellious lack of budgetary details – it will certainly give if he wins the primary. However, the current imbalance is caused solely by the universal income. Its exorbitant cost seems impossible to fund as it is presented currently, even with the proposed taxes and taxes of the candidate. In contrast, most other measures measurable have a reasonable cost, including the improvement of the educational system.