Atlantico : Then Benoit Hamon ahead of Manuel Valls to the “primary citizen,” the former prime minister seems to rely heavily on an offensive line, tying his rival to a “defeat ensured”. In such a climate of confrontation, what are the effects on the electorate of the left could produce a charge, against Benoît Hamon, too much complacency on the issue of Islam ?
Bruno Jeanbart : Overall, this issue is a security issue quite secondary in this primary from the left. The main concerns of the voters who voted Sunday are more about the economic and social issues, employment and social protection. The issues of immigration or security arrive very far behind in their concerns. The effect of this accusation of complacency with islam could not be limited on account of the hierarchy of issues for voters who have moved.
This hierarchy, as described should be similar next Sunday.
One can not exclude that this issue will play a role in a part of the electorate which is the result of popular categories. They were not among the most numerous in this vote, but among these, many were interested in the candidacy of Arnaud Montebourg, and it may have a small effect on their report of the votes. All in all, the economic and social issues remain absolutely crucial to this electorate.
in The light of the sociology of the participants in the primary, what could be the impact of such an accusation on the part of Manuel Valls ? Could this be a handicap for Benoit Hamon, an asset, or it would it have a neutral effect on the result ?
it All depends on how are employees of the arguments against the islamo-leftism. This topic of immigration and security will not be the central point of the campaign of the former Prime minister in this period between the two rounds. It will insist more on two points that seem important. The first, it will be the ability of the candidate nominated by this primary to be able to be included in the presidential election in April and may next year. It has the advantage on Benoit Hamon on this point. And secondly, on the relationship to work. Is it going to be a scarcity of labour ? Towards the end of the work as seems to think Benoit Hamon ? Is it that, on the contrary, the question is how best to remunerate the work as the think of Manuel Valls ?
from the moment this theme is secondary, it is not his primary angle, this will not have adverse effects against him.
In a vision of victory for Manuel Valls, what might be the effects of such positioning in his opposition to Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron ? In the same way, what would be the implications of a victory of Benoît Hamon ?
In this perspective, it is a theme that separates Manuel Valls Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron, mainly of Emmanuel Macron. Their relation to questions of security and immigration is quite different. Between the two, we can see that Emmanuel Macron has expressed its doubt on the effects of deprivation of nationality. In addition, he is pro immigration, while Manuel Valls embodies a left that is more balanced, not pro-immigration, but not completely closed on these debates-as opposed to the right. For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the report is more ambiguous. Jean-Luc Mélenchon rejected over the subject of immigration as a major topic. Mélenchon has a tendency to say that all this was not a priority for the French. This is neither good nor bad according to him. Mélenchon is historically more open about his relationship to the immigration. This could be a line of fracture with a nomination of Manuel Valls and that of Mélenchon or Macron.