Wednesday, November 16, 2016

“By declaring before the primary right, Macron can hope for a small demobilization of the camp Juppé” – The World

Nicolas Chapuis, chief of the political department of the ” World “, responded to the questions of internet users after the announcement of the candidacy for the presidency of the ex-minister of economy, on Wednesday

John Mart : The announcement of the nomination of Emmanuel Macron during the primaries of the right does not risk, does it not, to him be detrimental ?

Nicolas Chapuis : candidates of the right may particularly target Emmanuel Macron in the next two days. But this is not the same issue for all. Nicolas Sarkozy, for example, has little in common with the other candidate running ! On the other hand, Alain Juppé may fear that a part of the electorate centrist waive the right to participate in the primary, believing that Mr. Macron embodies more of their ideas.

moreover, there is a part of calculation is evident in the calendar chosen by Emmanuel Macron. By declaring just before the primary from the right, it occupies the ground, sends a message to his potential voters from the right and can hope for a small demobilization of the camp Juppé. In fact, he has everything to gain in a victory of Nicolas Sarkozy, which leaves more space between the candidate of the left and the right.

Read also : Emmanuel Macron (finally) candidate in the presidential election

Seb : When can we expect to have a clarification on a hypothetical participation of Macron to the primary-to-left ?

many of You are wondering about the attitude of Emmanuel Macron vis-à-vis the primary to the left. For the moment, the candidate is very clear about his intentions : he is a candidate for the presidential election and will not be a candidate in the primary to the left. In reality, it is above all in his entourage, among his advisers, that some are pushing that goes to the primary. The calculation is stupidly arithmetic : with a potential of votes from about 30% to share, the whole of the left going into the wall if it shows several candidates. The only way to unify a bid between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the winner of the primary right is, therefore, to go through the primary.

But Mr. Macron doesn’t want to, for the moment, for three reasons : it is considered that this puts it back into the “system,” with a partisan, which the French, according to him, no longer want ; it has no confidence in the process, locked by the socialist Party, which hates him ; and it is not at all sure of the win with a basic socialist who is not in tune with what it offers. That’s a lot.

BuzzLeclaire : Mr. Macron would not he waited too long to declare himself presidential candidate ? Will-t-it has to mobilise politicians to support her candidacy and worry really the favorites ?

The question of the calendar is always complex. Some of his advisers wanted to wait longer. For my part, I find that the time is not so ill-chosen. It is positioned before the primary from the right, and does thus not his choice to the result. It puts pressure on François Hollande, who had announced long ago that he would decide in the first fortnight of December. And it grid politeness to a possible candidacy of Manuel Valls.

Wired75 : Are there any appointments scheduled by Macron in the coming days to explain the democratic revolution that he proposes ? I rest on my hunger for the moment…

Emmanuel Macron has planned a trip to Marseille Thursday, where he should start to refine its program. For the moment, it remains quite general and refuses to enter into the detail of its proposals. According to some of his advisers, it is totally voluntary, because it knows that the heart of his program, inspiration quite liberal, would not necessarily embraced by his electorate. The next few weeks we will tell more.

Wilfrid Brenet : Le number of members of power up !, that Macron and his supporters never cease to compare them to other political formations, it does not mean anything : it is enough to register on the site to be considered as part of the movement, while in the other parties, it is necessary to pay a membership fee…

indeed, we take great care to specify each time that the numbers of members in march ! are to be taken with a grain of salt. Membership is free, much simpler than in a traditional party, and the digits transmitted are not verifiable (such as in the parties this time).

Jonathan : said that Emmanuel Macron is preparing a book. Is this confirmed ?

This is quite accurate, the candidate prepares a book for several months. He was clearly struggling to finish it. This is his first book, he is very waiting there above him, the former assistant of philosopher Paul Ricoeur. He concedes to suffer the “syndrome of Scheherazade” in The arabian nights, who never finishes his story. You can believe it, or consider it part of the storytelling Macron, who likes to obviously make it last suspense.

James : ” Walk ! ” he voluntarily initials of Emmanuel Macron ?

Yes. His team wanted to make us believe the contrary at the start, a happy accident, but it is clearly the case. Which goes against what he professes from the beginning : ” This is not a question of personality. “

Alex : Si the calculation of Macron is to promote Nicolas Sarkozy’s right, risk does it not have François Bayrou in the center as a result ?

It is quite possible. The relations between MESSRS. Macron and Bayrou are very bad, the second refusing to give up his political capital in the first without a fight.

Bertrand : You write that the left can count on about 30 % of the votes. Do you not think that Mr. Macron will be able to count on a portion of the voters are traditionally right ?

You have reason, the analysis cannot be reduced to a cutout of a caricature of the electorate, especially with candidates like Mr. Macron, whose positioning is riding on the traditional rifts. To summarize my thoughts : with a candidate FN to around 25 % to 30 %, a candidate from the right in the same waters, a Mélenchon between 10 % and 15 %, the electoral potential remaining share is limited. All the more so if there is a candidate of the PS, the Greens, center, right, sovereignist, etc., But the calculation of Mr Macron is to blow up this arithmetic classic.

Mary : A hear Emmanuel Macron, it is the democratic system that is down. And yet, no proposal for change of Constitution. How does he see things ?

For the moment, Macron still quite blur about the system of society that he wants to put in place. Therefore, I am unable to enlighten you. In the construction of his application, he was started by a phase of observation (September and October) with meetings on the state of France. It is the failure of the democratic system and the integration of excluded people (employment, housing, of the company) no longer work. However, it is not the only one to draw this table. It expects its proposals for responses to these challenges in the coming weeks.

Read also : For his opponents, Emmanuel Macron is “the candidate of the media, “which” is not proven ”

Juliet :u made the nomination of Macron for the presidential election, there was-there not a danger of dividing the electorate and thus to facilitate the rise of the extremes ?

This is the argument that develops already François Hollande : the nomination of Mr. Macron divides the left and the fragmentation benefits the FN and Mr. Mélenchon. But this will be insufficient to hope to bring it back into line. In return, Mr. Macron explained that it is the policy of the last ten years, which has fragmented the country. Even if it is a party in recent years.

Peter : Can we consider the nomination of Macron as a way to “take a date” for a presidential election later, for example in 2022 ?

His entourage is divided into two categories : those who believe in it to 2017, thinking that he is able to reverse the game established. And those who think that it is very important that he go to weigh heavily in the reconstruction of the political landscape after 2017. If he makes a score by 2017, it will be essential in the after.

Zidane : Y a-t-il for more information on the voting intentions of which enjoys Macron ? Even if the polls are always to be taken with a grain of salt…

I invite you to come back on The on Thursday. We will post our wave of monthly, in partnership with the Cevipof and Ipsos-Sopra Steria. It is a survey of the larger base of respondents in France (more than 20,000), for over a year and a half. That said, you’re right, the us elections show us that we need to be very careful with the results.


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