Friday, October 10, 2014

Why the return of Nicolas Sarkozy is a failure – Inrocks

Why the return of Nicolas Sarkozy is a failure – Inrocks

In its edition of October 8, the Chained Duck reports the words of an adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy: “[It] is not disabled – it never is – but is disappointed by his campaign. Last week was very rotten “. Why? Focus on five thorns in the side of the “ex”.

Polls struggling to take off

Since the announcement of his return to his Facebook page on September 19, polls about Nicolas Sarkozy multiply. And despite a communication plan worked – including an interview with JT France 2 followed by a big meeting with his supporters in Lambeth – curves surveys struggling to take off

As early as 21 September. two days after the announcement of his return to Facebook, 63% of French said no to the question “Would you like Nicolas Sarkozy or presidential candidate in 2017″ in a CSA poll for BFM TV. On 23 September, following his interview on France 2 Delahousse Laurent, 55% of French were still not convinced by the former President. 74% of them, Nicolas Sarkozy has “not changed,” according to a survey Odoxa for Le Parisien

And the trend does not seem to be reversing. D According to the YouGov poll for The HuffPost iTV and dated October 2, 56% of French say they still opposed to a return of Nicolas Sarkozy in the foreground.

The “threat” Alain Juppe

Invited to the program Words and actions 3 October on France 2, Alain Juppe has a successful political season, if one refers among other things, JDD . Almost 3 million French saw and heard former Prime Minister Jacques Chirac. Whoever said stay “right in his boots” at the times of the great strikes of 1995 has even graced us an “emotional moment” against David Pujadas, the evocation of a survey Harris who was very supportive.

In recent years, Alain Juppe had set down before returning to the government of François Fillon in 2010 Reverse to jump better? He did not seek the presidency of the UMP, or in November 2012, or two years later, in May 2014, after the departure of Jean-Francois Cope, mired in Bygmalion case. But on August 20, on his blog, although this time he announced his intention to stand for primary UMP for the presidency in 2017.

In 2010 already, Alain Juppe was considering present in the 2012 presidential election at the time, however, he recognized the position of the “natural candidate of the majority” Nicolas Sarkozy. But things have changed: the successive defeats of the right in presidential and legislative or squabbles between Francois Fillon and Jean-Francois Cope in November 2012 allowed the mayor of Bordeaux to get high. So that you almost forget his sentence of one year of ineligibility (on appeal) in the case of fictitious employees of the municipality of Paris. Yet it was there ten years ago, on 1 December 2004

Today, he can count on several assets. Real popularity (ranked 49th in the standings in 2014 personalities JDD – Nicolas Sarkozy is his 29th but loses 15 places compared to 2013) and can count on the support of Jacques Chirac said that there are some days Figaro :

“I always knew that Alain Juppé is the appointment of his destiny and that of France. Few things could make me happier, for myself, for him and especially for our country “

Two setbacks in the Senate

After an interlude from 2011 to 2014 where the majority was left (for the first time in the Fifth Republic), the Senate has again shifted to the right during the renewal of some of the senators, on September 28. But by looking more precisely the victory of the right, there it weakens Nicolas Sarkozy in the Upper Chamber of the French Parliament.

Two senators loyal Sarkozy have indeed been beaten in key positions Senate. The filloniste Senator Bruno Vendée Retailleau has won the presidency of the UMP group in the nose and beard of Roger Karoutchi Sarkozy, with a final score of 79 votes against 39 in the first round. More symbolic, Gerard Larcher, too close to François Fillon, blew the chair of the Senate Jean-Pierre Raffarin. Philippe Dallier, UMP senator of the Seine-Saint-Denis and also filloniste confided in that context the World :

“It there is a real desire on the part of senators to keep the group away from what’s going on rue de Vaugirard [the seat of the UMP]. “

Beaten Roger Karoutchi admitted to World that he felt that his campaign “turned sour” in recent days and that there was ” the reappearance of a rift between fillonistes sarkozystes and which had not existed for a year. “

Marriage for all

The UMP only provide a clear line on the Taubira law in 2013, opening marriage to couples of the same sex, as well as on issues of assisted reproductive technology (LDCs) and surrogacy (GPA).

Although the UMP shows a clear line on the GPA, namely his refusal, this is not the case for LDCs where Alain Juppe said “supports a legislative supplement to prevent it extension to homosexual couples. “ Xavier Bertrand, although ” favorable to the union of homosexuals “ couples opposes the adoption of children to homosexual couples, the GPA and LDCs. Francois Fillon is one of the most radical in the UMP today: according to his lieutenant Jerome Chartier, “rewriting the law will be ignored. It is not the question of accepting gay marriage but whether or not one accepts the principle of surrogacy for gay couples. I do not accept it. “

Nicolas Sarkozy sentence him to position relative to its competitors. He recalled in particular: “This is a more complex issue than is said and on which our electorate is divided”, adding Oct. 6 meeting in Velizy (78): “It will rewrite the Taubira law.” A hint, Nicolas Sarkozy designs seek his line to not rush the militants. Especially since, even within his camp, the question remains clivante, Laurent Wauquiez, present on 5 October at the AKI for All wants to repeal the law. Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet is her opposite

court cases

They almost forget, but just a new appears -. That helicopters from Kazakhstan and disputed contracts in 2010 to nearly two billion euros – to remember that Nicolas Sarkozy is still involved directly or indirectly in several files: the campaign accounts of the 2012 presidential and society Bygmalion , wiretapping of Elysium, and the polls. The Karachi affair, involving alleged retro-commissions not paid by France in the allocation for the purchase of nuclear submarines contracts. Funding for the 2007 campaign by Libya or arbitration between CDR Bernard Tapie and the Crédit Lyonnais in the resale of Adidas.

Despite an almost assured victory in a month and a half (the November 29) for the presidency of the UMP, the path that must lead Nicolas Sarkozy to primary UMP (probably in 2016) and presidential the following year is still long.


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